Model analysis

Every card here opens a match page, not a separate article: the written breakdown lives on the page for the match it is about, which is where you want it when you are reading about that match. What each card shows is the model's own summary of the fixture — the probability split it arrived at and why. If you want to know how those probabilities are produced, the methodology sets out the whole method, including where the model is known to be wrong.

Written this week: The Model Called Betis Right Against Real Madrid — it also called Ipswich wrong on the same afternoon, and what a one-point lean is actually worth. Before that: Eighteen Matches, One Certainty — across the whole Champions League opening round the model gives exactly one team better than a 70% chance, and the median favourite is 45%. Kept current rather than written once: title races and relegation odds, every league we project, led by what moved.

9 of the 90 matches below carry a full written breakdown; the rest are the model's call on the biggest fixtures on the board. They are grouped by competition and run in kickoff order inside each group. Every card opens the match page it belongs to.