Pendikspor
vs
Kayserispor
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Pendikspor 0–1 Kayserispor
The model makes it 33% Pendikspor, 29% draw, 38% Kayserispor — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Pendikspor 1.24, Kayserispor 1.36.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to Kayserispor: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Pendikspor are 14th on 10 points from 10 games; Kayserispor are top on 22 points from 9 games — 1. Lig.
- Pendikspor are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Vanspor FK.
- Kayserispor are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-2 win at home to Manisa F.K..
- Last 3 meetings: Kayserispor 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 19 July 2026, ended Kayserispor 1–2 Pendikspor.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Pendikspor vs Kayserispor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kayserispor at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Pendikspor vs Kayserispor
Pendikspor
- L1-2Vanspor FK13 October 2026
- L1-4away to Sivasspor9 October 2026
- D1-1Bodrum FK20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Boluspor12 September 2026
- W1-0Ümraniyespor5 September 2026
Kayserispor
- W3-2Manisa F.K.10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Mardin 196920 September 2026
- W4-0İstanbulspor14 September 2026
- W3-0away to Esenler Erokspor7 September 2026
- D1-1away to Fatih Karagümrük2 September 2026
What these results say
- Pendikspor scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Pendikspor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pendikspor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kayserispor went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Kayserispor scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kayserispor won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pendikspor | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 10 |
| 1 | Kayserispor | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Pendikspor
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 28% today
Kayserispor
Chance to finish in the top four · 60% today
From our 1. Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Pendikspor vs Kayserispor
- 19 July 2026Kayserispor 1–2 PendiksporFriendlies Clubs
- 28 April 2024Pendikspor 1–2 KayserisporSüper Lig
- 10 December 2023Kayserispor 2–0 PendiksporSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Pendikspor and Kayserispor
Pendikspor
GoalsAssists
- Thuram31
Kayserispor
GoalsAssists
- T. Seferi71
- D. Moreno60
- B. Keser32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Pendikspor carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.45 for Kayserispor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.24 goals for Pendikspor and 1.36 for Kayserispor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pendikspor rate 0.53 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kayserispor rate 0.64 and 1.44.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Pendikspor a 0% chance of the title and Kayserispor 19.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kayserispor the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Pendikspor against 1.36 for Kayserispor. Pendikspor's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.44 for Kayserispor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Pendikspor at home · Kayserispor away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Pendikspor 10, Kayserispor 9.
Kayserispor score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Pendikspor have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Pendikspor
- at Fatih Karagümrük31 Oct · 1. Ligwin 18%
- vs İstanbulspor7 Nov · 1. Ligwin 48%
- at Manisa F.K.22 Nov · 1. Ligwin 26%
- vs Iğdır FK29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 36%
Kayserispor
- vs Muğlaspor2 Nov · 1. Ligwin 46%
- at Ümraniyespor8 Nov · 1. Ligwin 36%
- vs Sarıyer21 Nov · 1. Ligwin 51%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.