ADT
vs
UCV Moquegua
Primera División prediction
Our model says: ADT 1–0 UCV Moquegua
The model makes it 45% ADT, 30% draw, 25% UCV Moquegua — fair odds of 2.22, 3.33 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: ADT 1.35, UCV Moquegua 0.87.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- ADT are 16th on 26 points from 28 games; UCV Moquegua are 17th on 25 points from 28 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- ADT have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to FC Cajamarca.
- UCV Moquegua have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Cienciano.
- Last 2 meetings: ADT 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 27 August 2026, ended ADT 2–0 UCV Moquegua.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: ADT vs UCV Moquegua
Has the model earned this number?
It puts ADT at 45% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into ADT vs UCV Moquegua
ADT
- D0-0FC Cajamarca10 October 2026
- W2-1Cienciano23 September 2026
- L0-2away to Alianza Lima19 September 2026
- L0-3away to FBC Melgar6 September 2026
- L1-3Sport Huancayo30 August 2026
UCV Moquegua
- L0-2Cienciano8 October 2026
- L0-4away to Juan Pablo II College20 September 2026
- L1-2Sporting Cristal13 September 2026
- L0-2away to Cusco5 September 2026
- L1-4Alianza Atletico30 August 2026
What these results say
- ADT failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- ADT conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- UCV Moquegua did not win any of these 5 matches.
- UCV Moquegua conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | ADT | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 29 | 42 | -13 | 26 |
| 17 | UCV Moquegua | 28 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 24 | 43 | -19 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: ADT vs UCV Moquegua
- 27 August 2026ADT 2–0 UCV MoqueguaCopa De La Liga
- 9 May 2026UCV Moquegua 2–2 ADTPrimera División
Leading scorers: ADT and UCV Moquegua
ADT
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 29 league goals as a side.
UCV Moquegua
GoalsAssists
- E. Lastre85
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
ADT carry a model rating of 6.16 against 6.1 for UCV Moquegua. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for ADT and 0.87 for UCV Moquegua. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
ADT rate 0.45 in attack and 1.80 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; UCV Moquegua rate 0.40 and 1.84.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives ADT the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for ADT against 0.87 for UCV Moquegua. ADT's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.4/1.84 for UCV Moquegua.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
ADT at home · UCV Moquegua away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: ADT 28, UCV Moquegua 28.
ADT score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); UCV Moquegua have let in 12 there.
UCV Moquegua score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); ADT have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
ADT
- at Comerciantes Unidos31 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 23%
- vs Sporting Cristal7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 27%
- at Cusco14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 18%
UCV Moquegua
- vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas31 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 37%
- at Universitario7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 14%
- vs Atletico Grau14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.