Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
vs
Universitatea Craiova
Liga I prediction
Our model says: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 0–1 Universitatea Craiova
The model makes it 18% Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe, 29% draw, 53% Universitatea Craiova — fair odds of 5.56, 3.45 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (18%).
Expected goals: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 0.62, Universitatea Craiova 1.44.
Both teams to score: 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Universitatea Craiova are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe are 11th on 13 points from 11 games; Universitatea Craiova are 3rd on 23 points from 11 games — Liga I.
- Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Dinamo Bucuresti.
- Universitatea Craiova are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Csikszereda.
- Last 6 meetings: Universitatea Craiova 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 14 December 2024, ended Universitatea Craiova 2–1 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe.
More Romanian Liga I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Universitatea Craiova
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Universitatea Craiova at 53% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Universitatea Craiova
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
- L0-2Dinamo Bucuresti9 October 2026
- L0-1away to Uta Arad18 September 2026
- W3-1CFR 1907 Cluj12 September 2026
- L0-5away to FC Botosani5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Arges Pitesti29 August 2026
Universitatea Craiova
- W1-0away to Csikszereda11 October 2026
- W5-0FCSB19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Corvinul Hunedoara13 September 2026
- W4-0Universitatea Cluj7 September 2026
- D1-1away to Rapid31 August 2026
What these results say
- Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Universitatea Craiova went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Universitatea Craiova scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Universitatea Craiova won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 13 |
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 9 | +16 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 27% today
Universitatea Craiova
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 41% today
From our Liga I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Universitatea Craiova
- 14 December 2024Universitatea Craiova 2–1 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
- 11 August 2024Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1–2 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
- 18 May 2024Universitatea Craiova 3–2 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
- 21 April 2024Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1–3 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
- 4 February 2024Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1–3 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
- 16 September 2023Universitatea Craiova 2–1 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
Leading scorers: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe and Universitatea Craiova
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Universitatea Craiova
GoalsAssists
- S. Elisor60
- A. Al Hamlawi40
- S. Nsimba40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.81 for Universitatea Craiova. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.62 goals for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe and 1.44 for Universitatea Craiova. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe rate 0.43 in attack and 1.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Universitatea Craiova rate 0.89 and 0.97.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe a 0% chance of the title and Universitatea Craiova 41.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universitatea Craiova the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.62 expected goals for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe against 1.44 for Universitatea Craiova. Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe's attack/defence rating is 0.43/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/0.97 for Universitatea Craiova.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at home · Universitatea Craiova away
League matches only, Liga I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheUniversitatea Craiova
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe are 9th after 11 Liga I matches (between 6th and 13th so far); Universitatea Craiova are 2nd after 11 (between 1st and 8th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga I matches this season: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 11, Universitatea Craiova 11.
Universitatea Craiova score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
- at Oțelul31 Oct · Liga Iwin 24%
- vs FC Voluntari7 Nov · Liga Iwin 45%
- vs Rapid21 Nov · Liga Iwin 25%
- at Universitatea Cluj28 Nov · Liga Iwin 17%
Universitatea Craiova
- vs FC Botosani31 Oct · Liga Iwin 64%
- vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 77%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.