Carrarese
vs
Arezzo
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Carrarese 1–0 Arezzo
The model makes it 50% Carrarese, 27% draw, 23% Arezzo — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Carrarese 1.61, Arezzo 0.92.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Carrarese: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Carrarese are 17th on 4 points from 6 games; Arezzo are 12th on 7 points from 6 games — Serie B.
- Carrarese have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Padova.
- Arezzo have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Cremonese.
- Last 5 meetings: Carrarese 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 14 January 2024, ended Carrarese 2–3 Arezzo.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Carrarese vs Arezzo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Carrarese at 50% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Carrarese vs Arezzo
Carrarese
- W2-0away to Padova11 October 2026
- L0-1Benevento19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Catanzaro12 September 2026
- L0-1Empoli5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Ascoli29 August 2026
Arezzo
- D0-0Cremonese10 October 2026
- L1-4Sudtirol20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Empoli11 September 2026
- L0-5away to Hellas Verona6 September 2026
- L2-3Palermo30 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Carrarese had two goals or fewer.
- Carrarese failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Carrarese conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arezzo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Carrarese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Arezzo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Carrarese vs Arezzo
- 14 January 2024Carrarese 2–3 ArezzoSerie C - Girone B
- 9 September 2023Arezzo 1–3 CarrareseSerie C - Girone B
- 17 November 2019Carrarese 2–2 ArezzoSerie C - Girone A
- 16 March 2019Carrarese 3–0 ArezzoSerie C - Girone A
- 19 November 2018Arezzo 2–2 CarrareseSerie C - Girone A
The two sides
Carrarese carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.32 for Arezzo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for Carrarese and 0.92 for Arezzo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Carrarese rate 0.60 in attack and 1.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arezzo rate 0.62 and 1.79.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Arezzo, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Carrarese a 0.2% chance of the title and Arezzo 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Carrarese the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Carrarese against 0.92 for Arezzo. Carrarese's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.79 for Arezzo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Carrarese at home · Arezzo away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
CarrareseArezzo
Carrarese are 17th after 6 Serie B matches (between 11th and 19th so far); Arezzo are 12th after 6 (between 2nd and 13th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Juve Stabia −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Carrarese 6, Arezzo 6.
Carrarese score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); Arezzo have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Carrarese
- at Hellas Verona1 Nov · Serie Bwin 21%
- vs Sampdoria8 Nov · Serie Bwin 45%
- vs Virtus Entella21 Nov · Serie Bwin 40%
Arezzo
- vs Ascoli1 Nov · Serie Bwin 26%
- at Juve Stabia7 Nov · Serie Bwin 22%
- vs Padova21 Nov · Serie Bwin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.