Union La Calera
vs
Universidad Catolica
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Union La Calera 0–1 Universidad Catolica
The model makes it 26% Union La Calera, 27% draw, 47% Universidad Catolica — fair odds of 3.85, 3.70 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Union La Calera 1.08, Universidad Catolica 1.63.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: Universidad Catolica are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Union La Calera are bottom on 18 points from 24 games; Universidad Catolica are 3rd on 42 points from 23 games — Primera División.
- Union La Calera have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Concepción.
- Universidad Catolica are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to Palestino.
- Last 6 meetings: Union La Calera 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 26 September 2026, ended Universidad Catolica 0–0 Union La Calera.
More Chilean Primera División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Union La Calera vs Universidad Catolica
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Universidad Catolica at 47% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Union La Calera vs Universidad Catolica
Union La Calera
- D1-1away to Concepción11 October 2026
- W1-0Deportes Limache14 September 2026
- L1-2away to O'Higgins6 September 2026
- L0-1Deportes La Serena31 August 2026
- D0-0away to Audax Italiano22 August 2026
Universidad Catolica
- W3-2away to Palestino12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Everton de Vina5 September 2026
- W3-2O'Higgins1 September 2026
- W2-1away to Coquimbo Unido26 August 2026
- L1-2Nublense23 August 2026
What these results say
- Union La Calera failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Union La Calera had two goals or fewer.
- Universidad Catolica scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Universidad Catolica won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Universidad Catolica conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Union La Calera | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 41 | -21 | 18 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 23 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 50 | 33 | +17 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Universidad Catolica
Chance to finish in the top four
From our Primera División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Union La Calera vs Universidad Catolica
- 26 September 2026Universidad Catolica 0–0 Union La CaleraCopa Chile
- 23 September 2026Union La Calera 1–1 Universidad CatolicaCopa Chile
- 21 April 2026Universidad Catolica 1–2 Union La CaleraPrimera División
- 6 December 2025Universidad Catolica 2–1 Union La CaleraPrimera División
- 20 June 2025Union La Calera 1–1 Universidad CatolicaPrimera División
- 21 March 2025Universidad Catolica 0–1 Union La CaleraCopa Chile
Leading scorers: Union La Calera and Universidad Catolica
Union La Calera
GoalsAssists
- S. Sáez81
Universidad Catolica
GoalsAssists
- F. Zampedri222
- J. Giani74
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Union La Calera carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.58 for Universidad Catolica. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.08 goals for Union La Calera and 1.63 for Universidad Catolica. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Union La Calera rate 0.45 in attack and 1.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Universidad Catolica rate 0.83 and 1.43.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Union La Calera a 0% chance of the title and Universidad Catolica 2.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universidad Catolica the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Union La Calera against 1.63 for Universidad Catolica. Union La Calera's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.43 for Universidad Catolica.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Union La Calera at home · Universidad Catolica away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Union La Calera 22, Universidad Catolica 23.
Universidad Catolica score most often in the 31–45 minute window (14 goals); Union La Calera have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Union La Calera
- at Coquimbo Unido1 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 17%
- vs Huachipato8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 37%
- at Palestino22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 19%
- vs Universidad de Concepcion29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 44%
- at Universidad de Chile6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 11%
Universidad Catolica
- vs Universidad de Chile1 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 37%
- vs Deportes Limache8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 54%
- at Colo Colo22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 28%
- vs Huachipato29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 59%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.