Cherno More Varna
vs
Septemvri Sofia
First League prediction
Our model says: Cherno More Varna 1–0 Septemvri Sofia
The model makes it 46% Cherno More Varna, 27% draw, 27% Septemvri Sofia — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Cherno More Varna 1.60, Septemvri Sofia 1.08.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Cherno More Varna are bottom on 6 points from 11 games; Septemvri Sofia are 13th on 8 points from 11 games — First League.
- Cherno More Varna have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Levski Sofia.
- Septemvri Sofia have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Dunav Ruse.
- Last 6 meetings: Cherno More Varna 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 7 March 2026, ended Septemvri Sofia 0–3 Cherno More Varna.
More Bulgarian First League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cherno More Varna at 46% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia
Cherno More Varna
- L0-2Levski Sofia11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Arda Kardzhali19 September 2026
- D2-2Lokomotiv Sofia11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv6 September 2026
- L1-3away to CSKA Sofia30 August 2026
Septemvri Sofia
- L2-3Dunav Ruse11 October 2026
- L0-3Botev Plovdiv19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Ludogorets14 September 2026
- L2-3Botev Vratsa4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Slavia Sofia28 August 2026
What these results say
- Cherno More Varna did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Cherno More Varna conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Septemvri Sofia did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Septemvri Sofia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Septemvri Sofia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Cherno More Varna | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 6 |
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Cherno More Varna
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 56% today
Septemvri Sofia
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 70% today
From our First League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia
- 7 March 2026Septemvri Sofia 0–3 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 27 September 2025Cherno More Varna 1–1 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 29 November 2024Septemvri Sofia 1–2 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 29 July 2024Cherno More Varna 2–0 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 17 March 2023Cherno More Varna 3–0 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 5 September 2022Septemvri Sofia 0–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cherno More Varna carry a model rating of 6.18 against 6.07 for Septemvri Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for Cherno More Varna and 1.08 for Septemvri Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cherno More Varna rate 0.52 in attack and 1.98 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Septemvri Sofia rate 0.47 and 2.23.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Septemvri Sofia, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cherno More Varna the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Cherno More Varna against 1.08 for Septemvri Sofia. Cherno More Varna's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/2.23 for Septemvri Sofia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cherno More Varna at home · Septemvri Sofia away
League matches only, First League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Cherno More VarnaSeptemvri Sofia
Cherno More Varna are 14th after 11 First League matches (between 7th and 14th so far); Septemvri Sofia are 13th after 11 (between 6th and 13th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All First League matches this season: Cherno More Varna 11, Septemvri Sofia 11.
Cherno More Varna score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Septemvri Sofia have let in 6 there.
Septemvri Sofia score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Cherno More Varna have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Cherno More Varna
- at Slavia Sofia31 Oct · First Leaguewin 26%
- vs Botev Vratsa7 Nov · First Leaguewin 38%
- at Spartak Varna21 Nov · First Leaguewin 33%
- vs Botev Plovdiv28 Nov · First Leaguewin 30%
- at Ludogorets5 Dec · First Leaguewin 11%
Septemvri Sofia
- vs Lokomotiv Sofia31 Oct · First Leaguewin 32%
- at Arda Kardzhali7 Nov · First Leaguewin 21%
- vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv21 Nov · First Leaguewin 33%
- vs Levski Sofia28 Nov · First Leaguewin 10%
- at CSKA Sofia5 Dec · First Leaguewin 10%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.