SHANGHAI SIPG
vs
Công An Nhân Dân
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: SHANGHAI SIPG 2–1 Công An Nhân Dân
The model makes it 51% SHANGHAI SIPG, 25% draw, 24% Công An Nhân Dân — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.90, Công An Nhân Dân 1.13.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- SHANGHAI SIPG are 4th on 4 points from 2 games; Công An Nhân Dân are 14th on 0 points from 2 games — AFC Champions League Elite, East Region.
- SHANGHAI SIPG are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 4-2 win away to Hangzhou Greentown.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Công An Nhân Dân
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SHANGHAI SIPG at 51% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into SHANGHAI SIPG vs Công An Nhân Dân
SHANGHAI SIPG
- D1-1Daejeon Citizen13 October 2026
- W6-4away to Ratchaburi15 September 2026
Công An Nhân Dân
- L0-1Kashima13 October 2026
- L1-4away to Gamba Osaka15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 4 |
| 14 | Công An Nhân Dân | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: SHANGHAI SIPG and Công An Nhân Dân
SHANGHAI SIPG
GoalsAssists
- P. Ampem30
- Wu Lei11
- Jaume Grau11
Công An Nhân Dân
GoalsAssists
- B. Perea10
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
SHANGHAI SIPG carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.31 for Công An Nhân Dân. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.90 goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.13 for Công An Nhân Dân. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SHANGHAI SIPG rate 0.61 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Công An Nhân Dân rate 0.60 and 1.76.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SHANGHAI SIPG the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.90 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG against 1.13 for Công An Nhân Dân. SHANGHAI SIPG's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.76 for Công An Nhân Dân.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
SHANGHAI SIPG
- at Newcastle Jets3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 26%
- vs Shenyang Urban8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 61%
- vs Buriram United24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 49%
Công An Nhân Dân
- vs Kyoto Sanga3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 40%
- vs Vissel Kobe24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 30%
- at Kashiwa Reysol1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 16%
- vs Beijing Guoan9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 37%
- at Johor Darul Takzim FC16 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 18%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.