Göztepe
vs
Çorum FK
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Göztepe 2–1 Çorum FK
The model makes it 39% Göztepe, 23% draw, 38% Çorum FK — fair odds of 2.56, 4.35 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Göztepe 2.00, Çorum FK 1.98.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Göztepe and Çorum FK are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Göztepe are 15th on 6 points from 7 games; Çorum FK are 8th on 10 points from 7 games — Süper Lig.
- Göztepe are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 4-0 win away to Eyüpspor.
- Çorum FK have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Gaziantep FK.
- Last 2 meetings: Çorum FK 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 27 January 2024, ended Çorum FK 1–1 Göztepe.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Göztepe vs Çorum FK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Göztepe at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Göztepe vs Çorum FK
Göztepe
- W4-0away to Eyüpspor12 October 2026
- D2-2Rizespor20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Alanyaspor12 September 2026
- L2-4Gaziantep FK7 September 2026
- L2-3away to Galatasaray29 August 2026
Çorum FK
- W3-0away to Gaziantep FK11 October 2026
- L1-2Alanyaspor19 September 2026
- W5-1away to Samsunspor12 September 2026
- W3-0Eyüpspor6 September 2026
- L2-6away to Beşiktaş31 August 2026
What these results say
- Göztepe scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Göztepe had three goals or more.
- Göztepe failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Çorum FK scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Çorum FK had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Göztepe | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Çorum FK | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Göztepe
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 17% today
Çorum FK
Chance to finish in the top four · 15% today
From our Süper Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Göztepe vs Çorum FK
- 27 January 2024Çorum FK 1–1 Göztepe1. Lig
- 26 August 2023Göztepe 1–2 Çorum FK1. Lig
Leading scorers: Göztepe and Çorum FK
Göztepe
GoalsAssists
- Juan50
- André Henrique31
Çorum FK
GoalsAssists
- A. Kyziridis43
- C. Ramírez41
- C. Ünder31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Göztepe carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.78 for Çorum FK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.00 goals for Göztepe and 1.98 for Çorum FK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Göztepe rate 0.91 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Çorum FK rate 1.11 and 1.33.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Çorum FK, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Göztepe a 0% chance of the title and Çorum FK 0.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Göztepe the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Göztepe against 1.98 for Çorum FK. Göztepe's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.11/1.33 for Çorum FK.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Göztepe at home · Çorum FK away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
GöztepeÇorum FK
Göztepe are 15th after 7 Süper Lig matches (between 6th and 17th so far); Çorum FK are 8th after 7 (between 1st and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Göztepe 7, Çorum FK 7.
Göztepe score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Çorum FK have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Göztepe
- at Fenerbahçe31 Oct · Süper Ligwin 13%
- vs Başakşehir7 Nov · Süper Ligwin 34%
- at Erzurumspor FK22 Nov · Süper Ligwin 42%
- vs Trabzonspor30 Nov · Süper Ligwin 28%
Çorum FK
- at Erzurumspor FK31 Oct · Süper Ligwin 49%
- vs Fenerbahçe8 Nov · Süper Ligwin 29%
- at Başakşehir23 Nov · Süper Ligwin 28%
- vs Kocaelispor29 Nov · Süper Ligwin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.