Universitario
vs
Juan Pablo II College
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Universitario 2–1 Juan Pablo II College
The model makes it 55% Universitario, 23% draw, 22% Juan Pablo II College — fair odds of 1.82, 4.35 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Universitario 2.23, Juan Pablo II College 1.21.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Universitario: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Universitario are 2nd on 50 points from 28 games; Juan Pablo II College are 12th on 35 points from 28 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- Universitario have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to FBC Melgar.
- Juan Pablo II College are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Comerciantes Unidos.
- Last 3 meetings: Universitario 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended Juan Pablo II College 1–4 Universitario.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Universitario vs Juan Pablo II College
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Universitario at 55% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Universitario vs Juan Pablo II College
Universitario
- D2-2FBC Melgar11 October 2026
- L0-4away to Deportivo Garcilaso19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Alianza Lima13 September 2026
- D2-2Comerciantes Unidos6 September 2026
- W4-2away to UTC Cajamarca29 August 2026
Juan Pablo II College
- D1-1away to Comerciantes Unidos10 October 2026
- W4-0UCV Moquegua20 September 2026
- W2-1away to UTC Cajamarca11 September 2026
- D1-1Alianza Lima6 September 2026
- W4-3away to Club Deportivo Los Chankas29 August 2026
What these results say
- Universitario conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Universitario had three goals or more.
- Universitario scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Juan Pablo II College went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Juan Pablo II College scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Juan Pablo II College conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Universitario | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 45 | 33 | +12 | 50 |
| 12 | Juan Pablo II College | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 43 | 53 | -10 | 35 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Universitario
Chance to finish in the top four · 88% today
From our Primera División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Universitario vs Juan Pablo II College
- 3 May 2026Juan Pablo II College 1–4 UniversitarioPrimera División
- 5 October 2025Universitario 3–0 Juan Pablo II CollegePrimera División
- 18 May 2025Juan Pablo II College 2–0 UniversitarioPrimera División
Leading scorers: Universitario and Juan Pablo II College
Universitario
GoalsAssists
- A. Valera162
Juan Pablo II College
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 43 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Universitario carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.32 for Juan Pablo II College. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.23 goals for Universitario and 1.21 for Juan Pablo II College. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Universitario rate 0.72 in attack and 1.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Juan Pablo II College rate 0.65 and 1.90.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Universitario a 1% chance of the title and Juan Pablo II College 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universitario the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Universitario against 1.21 for Juan Pablo II College. Universitario's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.9 for Juan Pablo II College.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Universitario at home · Juan Pablo II College away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Universitario 28, Juan Pablo II College 28.
Juan Pablo II College score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Universitario have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Universitario
- vs Sport Boys28 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 49%
- at Atletico Grau31 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 36%
- vs UCV Moquegua7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 64%
- at Sport Huancayo14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 36%
Juan Pablo II College
- vs Sport Huancayo28 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 45%
- at Alianza Atletico31 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 24%
- at FBC Melgar7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 20%
- vs Deportivo Garcilaso14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.