Austin
vs
Real Salt Lake
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Austin 2–1 Real Salt Lake
The model makes it 42% Austin, 27% draw, 31% Real Salt Lake — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Austin 1.61, Real Salt Lake 1.32.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Austin are 14th on 31 points from 29 games; Real Salt Lake are 11th on 33 points from 29 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- Austin are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Los Angeles FC.
- Real Salt Lake have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to San Jose Earthquakes.
- Last 6 meetings: Real Salt Lake 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 15 March 2026, ended Real Salt Lake 2–1 Austin.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Austin vs Real Salt Lake
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Austin at 42% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Austin vs Real Salt Lake
Austin
- L1-3away to Los Angeles FC15 October 2026
- L1-4Nashville SC11 October 2026
- D3-3San Diego27 September 2026
- D0-0away to FC Dallas20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Vancouver Whitecaps13 September 2026
Real Salt Lake
- D1-1San Jose Earthquakes15 October 2026
- L1-2away to Philadelphia Union10 October 2026
- W3-0New England Revolution27 September 2026
- L0-2away to Seattle Sounders24 September 2026
- L0-3Vancouver Whitecaps20 September 2026
What these results say
- Austin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Austin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Austin conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Real Salt Lake failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Real Salt Lake conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Austin | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 31 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Austin
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 57% today
Real Salt Lake
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 29% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Austin vs Real Salt Lake
- 15 March 2026Real Salt Lake 2–1 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 28 September 2025Real Salt Lake 3–1 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 29 May 2025Austin 1–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 29 September 2024Austin 2–2 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 2 June 2024Real Salt Lake 5–1 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 4 June 2023Austin 1–2 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Austin carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.39 for Real Salt Lake. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for Austin and 1.32 for Real Salt Lake. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Austin rate 0.60 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Real Salt Lake rate 0.58 and 1.46.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Real Salt Lake, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Austin the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Austin against 1.32 for Real Salt Lake. Austin's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.46 for Real Salt Lake.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Austin at home · Real Salt Lake away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Austin 28, Real Salt Lake 28.
Austin score most often in the 76–90 minute window (16 goals); Real Salt Lake have let in 10 there.
Real Salt Lake score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Austin have let in 20 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Austin
- at Los Angeles Galaxy31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 30%
- vs Portland Timbers8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 41%
Real Salt Lake
- at San Jose Earthquakes31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 26%
- vs Los Angeles Galaxy8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.