Istra 1961
vs
HNK Hajduk Split
HNL postponed match
This fixture has been postponed and is not being played on this date. A replayed tie is listed by our data provider as a new fixture, with its own page, so the call below has no result to be judged against.
Before the match was called off the model made it 30% Istra 1961, 28% draw, 42% HNK Hajduk Split — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Istra 1961 1.16, HNK Hajduk Split 1.45.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to HNK Hajduk Split: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
More Croatian HNL predictions
Model insights: Istra 1961 vs HNK Hajduk Split
Has the model earned this number?
It puts HNK Hajduk Split at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Istra 1961 vs HNK Hajduk Split
Istra 1961
- W3-1away to NK Osijek10 October 2026
- L0-1HNK Gorica19 September 2026
- W3-2Rudes13 September 2026
- D0-0away to NK Varazdin4 September 2026
- D2-2Dinamo Zagreb29 August 2026
HNK Hajduk Split
- W2-1Dinamo Zagreb10 October 2026
- L0-3away to HNK Rijeka20 September 2026
- W1-0NK Slaven Belupo13 September 2026
- W4-0away to Rudes6 September 2026
- W2-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb31 August 2026
What these results say
- Istra 1961 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- HNK Hajduk Split won 4 of these 5 matches.
- HNK Hajduk Split scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 12 |
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Istra 1961 vs HNK Hajduk Split
- 9 August 2026HNK Hajduk Split 2–2 Istra 1961HNL
- 7 April 2026Istra 1961 1–3 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 25 January 2026HNK Hajduk Split 1–2 Istra 1961HNL
- 19 October 2025Istra 1961 0–3 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 3 August 2025HNK Hajduk Split 2–1 Istra 1961HNL
- 23 April 2025HNK Hajduk Split 0–1 Istra 1961HNL
Leading scorers: Istra 1961 and HNK Hajduk Split
Istra 1961
GoalsAssists
- E. Frederiksen73
- H. Jaganjac41
- D. Ahmeti34
HNK Hajduk Split
GoalsAssists
- M. Šego41
- M. Livaja30
- A. Sanyang21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Istra 1961 carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.65 for HNK Hajduk Split. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.16 goals for Istra 1961 and 1.45 for HNK Hajduk Split. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Istra 1961 rate 0.62 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; HNK Hajduk Split rate 0.80 and 1.19.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Istra 1961 a 0.2% chance of the title and HNK Hajduk Split 26.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HNK Hajduk Split the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Istra 1961 against 1.45 for HNK Hajduk Split. Istra 1961's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.19 for HNK Hajduk Split.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.