Nublense
vs
Coquimbo Unido
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Nublense 1–2 Coquimbo Unido
The model makes it 32% Nublense, 27% draw, 41% Coquimbo Unido — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Nublense 1.35, Coquimbo Unido 1.62.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Coquimbo Unido: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Nublense are 9th on 32 points from 24 games; Coquimbo Unido are 7th on 32 points from 23 games — Primera División.
- Nublense have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-6 defeat away to Universidad de Chile.
- Coquimbo Unido have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-2 win at home to Colo Colo.
- Last 6 meetings: Coquimbo Unido 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Coquimbo Unido 1–1 Nublense.
More Chilean Primera División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Coquimbo Unido at 41% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido
Nublense
- L0-6away to Universidad de Chile12 October 2026
- L1-3Everton de Vina12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Deportes La Serena6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Deportes Limache3 September 2026
- L0-1Concepción30 August 2026
Coquimbo Unido
- W5-2Colo Colo11 October 2026
- L2-3away to Cobresal12 September 2026
- L2-4away to Universidad de Chile6 September 2026
- W1-0Universidad de Concepcion2 September 2026
- L1-2Universidad Catolica26 August 2026
What these results say
- Nublense did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Nublense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Coquimbo Unido scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Coquimbo Unido conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Coquimbo Unido had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nublense | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 28 | 37 | -9 | 32 |
| 7 | Coquimbo Unido | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 36 | 33 | +3 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Nublense
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 3% today
Coquimbo Unido
Chance to finish in the top four · 16% today
From our Primera División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido
- 19 April 2026Coquimbo Unido 1–1 NublensePrimera División
- 12 September 2025Coquimbo Unido 2–1 NublensePrimera División
- 21 April 2025Nublense 0–0 Coquimbo UnidoPrimera División
- 20 July 2024Coquimbo Unido 1–0 NublensePrimera División
- 17 February 2024Nublense 0–0 Coquimbo UnidoPrimera División
- 30 September 2023Coquimbo Unido 1–3 NublensePrimera División
Leading scorers: Nublense and Coquimbo Unido
Nublense
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.
Coquimbo Unido
GoalsAssists
- N. Johansen90
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Nublense carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.51 for Coquimbo Unido. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Nublense and 1.62 for Coquimbo Unido. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nublense rate 0.55 in attack and 1.73 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Coquimbo Unido rate 0.75 and 1.47.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Coquimbo Unido the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Nublense against 1.62 for Coquimbo Unido. Nublense's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.47 for Coquimbo Unido.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Nublense at home · Coquimbo Unido away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Nublense 24, Coquimbo Unido 23.
Nublense score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Coquimbo Unido have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Nublense
- at O'Higgins1 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 26%
- vs Colo Colo8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 27%
- at Universidad de Concepcion22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 34%
- vs Cobresal29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 43%
- at Huachipato6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 25%
Coquimbo Unido
- vs Union La Calera1 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 59%
- at Audax Italiano8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 36%
- vs Everton de Vina22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 45%
- vs Deportes Limache29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.