Vicenza Virtus
vs
Modena
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Vicenza Virtus 0–1 Modena
The model makes it 28% Vicenza Virtus, 27% draw, 45% Modena — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Vicenza Virtus 1.14, Modena 1.59.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Modena: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Vicenza Virtus are 16th on 5 points from 6 games; Modena are 3rd on 13 points from 6 games — Serie B.
- Vicenza Virtus have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Pisa.
- Modena are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Hellas Verona.
- Last 2 meetings: Vicenza Virtus 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 January 2020, ended Vicenza Virtus 1–0 Modena.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Vicenza Virtus vs Modena
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Modena at 45% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Vicenza Virtus vs Modena
Vicenza Virtus
- L0-3Pisa10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Hellas Verona20 September 2026
- D1-1Juve Stabia12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Virtus Entella6 September 2026
- L0-3away to Avellino29 August 2026
Modena
- W3-2Hellas Verona11 October 2026
- W2-1Empoli20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sudtirol12 September 2026
- L0-1Avellino6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Cremonese28 August 2026
What these results say
- Vicenza Virtus did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Vicenza Virtus conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Vicenza Virtus had three goals or more.
- Modena scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Modena conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Vicenza Virtus | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 5 |
| 3 | Modena | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Vicenza Virtus
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 52% today
Modena
Chance to finish in the top four · 46% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Vicenza Virtus vs Modena
- 22 January 2020Vicenza Virtus 1–0 ModenaSerie C - Girone B
- 25 August 2019Modena 0–0 Vicenza VirtusSerie C - Girone B
Leading scorers: Vicenza Virtus and Modena
Vicenza Virtus
GoalsAssists
- S. Merkaj21
Modena
GoalsAssists
- G. Caso31
- G. Ambrosino22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Vicenza Virtus carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.64 for Modena. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.14 goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.59 for Modena. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vicenza Virtus rate 0.65 in attack and 1.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Modena rate 0.77 and 1.17.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Vicenza Virtus a 0.1% chance of the title and Modena 12.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Modena the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus against 1.59 for Modena. Vicenza Virtus's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.17 for Modena.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Vicenza Virtus at home · Modena away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Vicenza VirtusModena
Vicenza Virtus are 16th after 6 Serie B matches (between 1st and 16th so far); Modena are 3rd after 6 (between 1st and 5th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Juve Stabia −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Vicenza Virtus 6, Modena 6.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Vicenza Virtus
- at Palermo1 Nov · Serie Bwin 14%
- vs Cremonese8 Nov · Serie Bwin 26%
- at Ascoli21 Nov · Serie Bwin 17%
Modena
- vs Mantova31 Oct · Serie Bwin 44%
- at Virtus Entella8 Nov · Serie Bwin 37%
- vs Juve Stabia21 Nov · Serie Bwin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.