Keçiörengücü
vs
Bursaspor
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Keçiörengücü 2–1 Bursaspor
The model makes it 44% Keçiörengücü, 26% draw, 30% Bursaspor — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Keçiörengücü 1.68, Bursaspor 1.30.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Keçiörengücü are 4th on 16 points from 9 games; Bursaspor are 2nd on 19 points from 9 games — 1. Lig.
- Keçiörengücü are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Bodrum FK.
- Bursaspor have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Mardin 1969.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 2 April 2022, ended Keçiörengücü 2–1 Bursaspor.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Keçiörengücü vs Bursaspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Keçiörengücü at 44% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Keçiörengücü vs Bursaspor
Keçiörengücü
- W2-0away to Bodrum FK9 October 2026
- D1-1Sivasspor19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Vanspor FK12 September 2026
- W3-0Sarıyer5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Boluspor1 September 2026
Bursaspor
- L1-2Mardin 196911 October 2026
- W2-1away to Batman Petrolspor19 September 2026
- D2-2Esenler Erokspor13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Manisa F.K.7 September 2026
- W4-0İstanbulspor3 September 2026
What these results say
- Keçiörengücü went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Keçiörengücü scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Keçiörengücü had two goals or fewer.
- Bursaspor scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Bursaspor had three goals or more.
- Bursaspor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Keçiörengücü | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 16 |
| 2 | Bursaspor | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Keçiörengücü
Chance to finish in the top four · 56% today
Bursaspor
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 34% today
From our 1. Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Keçiörengücü vs Bursaspor
- 2 April 2022Keçiörengücü 2–1 Bursaspor1. Lig
- 1 November 2021Bursaspor 2–0 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
- 9 May 2021Bursaspor 0–3 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
- 2 January 2021Keçiörengücü 0–1 Bursaspor1. Lig
- 20 June 2020Keçiörengücü 1–0 Bursaspor1. Lig
- 23 November 2019Bursaspor 1–0 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
Leading scorers: Keçiörengücü and Bursaspor
Keçiörengücü
GoalsAssists
- M. Diouf52
- F. Ezeh33
Bursaspor
GoalsAssists
- K. Ịheanachọ122
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Keçiörengücü carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.56 for Bursaspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.68 goals for Keçiörengücü and 1.30 for Bursaspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Keçiörengücü rate 0.76 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bursaspor rate 0.76 and 1.36.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Bursaspor, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Keçiörengücü a 16.5% chance of the title and Bursaspor 33.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Keçiörengücü the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Keçiörengücü against 1.30 for Bursaspor. Keçiörengücü's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.36 for Bursaspor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Keçiörengücü at home · Bursaspor away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Keçiörengücü 9, Bursaspor 9.
Keçiörengücü score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Bursaspor have let in 0 there.
Bursaspor score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Keçiörengücü have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Keçiörengücü
- at Esenler Erokspor30 Oct · 1. Ligwin 34%
- vs Manisa F.K.7 Nov · 1. Ligwin 59%
- at İstanbulspor21 Nov · 1. Ligwin 48%
Bursaspor
- vs Bandırmaspor31 Oct · 1. Ligwin 44%
- at Antalyaspor6 Nov · 1. Ligwin 32%
- vs Sivasspor22 Nov · 1. Ligwin 55%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.