Fortaleza FC
vs
Deportivo Cali
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Fortaleza FC 0–1 Deportivo Cali
The model makes it 29% Fortaleza FC, 32% draw, 39% Deportivo Cali — fair odds of 3.45, 3.13 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (14%).
Expected goals: Fortaleza FC 0.90, Deportivo Cali 1.13.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 33%, under 2.5: 67%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to Deportivo Cali: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Fortaleza FC are 16th on 11 points from 13 games; Deportivo Cali are 2nd on 25 points from 13 games — Primera A.
- Fortaleza FC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Millonarios.
- Deportivo Cali are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Deportivo Pereira.
- Last 6 meetings: Fortaleza FC 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 1 March 2026, ended Deportivo Cali 1–1 Fortaleza FC.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Cali
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo Cali at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Cali
Fortaleza FC
- D1-1Millonarios9 October 2026
- D0-0away to Deportivo Pasto4 October 2026
- D2-2Deportes Tolima27 September 2026
- L1-4Junior20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Jaguares11 September 2026
Deportivo Cali
- D0-0away to Deportivo Pereira10 October 2026
- W3-1Alianza Valledupar3 October 2026
- W2-0Águilas Doradas28 September 2026
- W1-0away to Santa Fe23 September 2026
- W3-0Cucuta19 September 2026
What these results say
- Fortaleza FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Fortaleza FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fortaleza FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Cali went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Cali won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Cali scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Fortaleza FC | 13 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 11 |
| 2 | Deportivo Cali | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Fortaleza FC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 48% today
Deportivo Cali
Chance to finish in the top four · 65% today
From our Primera A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Cali
- 1 March 2026Deportivo Cali 1–1 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
- 25 July 2025Deportivo Cali 1–1 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
- 9 February 2025Fortaleza FC 1–0 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
- 25 September 2024Deportivo Cali 3–2 Fortaleza FCCopa Colombia
- 18 September 2024Fortaleza FC 1–0 Deportivo CaliCopa Colombia
- 30 July 2024Fortaleza FC 2–1 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
Leading scorers: Fortaleza FC and Deportivo Cali
Fortaleza FC
GoalsAssists
- A. Arroyo94
Deportivo Cali
GoalsAssists
- S. Rodríguez103
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Fortaleza FC carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.66 for Deportivo Cali. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.90 goals for Fortaleza FC and 1.13 for Deportivo Cali. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fortaleza FC rate 0.60 in attack and 1.63 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportivo Cali rate 0.68 and 1.03.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fortaleza FC a 0% chance of the title and Deportivo Cali 7.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportivo Cali the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Fortaleza FC against 1.13 for Deportivo Cali. Fortaleza FC's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.03 for Deportivo Cali.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fortaleza FC at home · Deportivo Cali away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Fortaleza FC 32, Deportivo Cali 31.
Fortaleza FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Deportivo Cali have let in 3 there.
Deportivo Cali score most often in the 61–75 minute window (10 goals); Fortaleza FC have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Fortaleza FC
- at America de Cali29 Oct · Primera Awin 15%
- at Águilas Doradas2 Nov · Primera Awin 24%
- vs Independiente Medellin7 Nov · Primera Awin 34%
- at Bucaramanga12 Nov · Primera Awin 16%
Deportivo Cali
- vs Chico2 Nov · Primera Awin 61%
- at America de Cali8 Nov · Primera Awin 25%
- vs Deportes Tolima12 Nov · Primera Awin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.