Genk
vs
Standard Liege
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: Genk 1–0 Standard Liege
The model makes it 47% Genk, 27% draw, 26% Standard Liege — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Genk 1.63, Standard Liege 1.08.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Genk are 7th on 12 points from 8 games; Standard Liege are 9th on 11 points from 8 games — Jupiler Pro League.
- Genk have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Kortrijk.
- Standard Liege are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Charleroi.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended Standard Liege 0–0 Genk.
More Jupiler Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Genk vs Standard Liege
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Genk at 47% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Genk vs Standard Liege
Genk
- W3-0Kortrijk10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Club Brugge KV20 September 2026
- D1-1Gent13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Anderlecht6 September 2026
- W4-0SK Beveren28 August 2026
Standard Liege
- L0-1Charleroi11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Gent18 September 2026
- L2-4away to KVC Westerlo12 September 2026
- W1-0Antwerp5 September 2026
- W2-1away to OH Leuven29 August 2026
What these results say
- Standard Liege scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Standard Liege conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Genk | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 12 |
| 9 | Standard Liege | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Genk
Chance to finish in the top four · 15% today
Standard Liege
Chance to finish in the top four · 4% today
From our Jupiler Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Genk vs Standard Liege
- 16 May 2026Standard Liege 0–0 GenkJupiler Pro League
- 25 April 2026Genk 1–1 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
- 22 February 2026Genk 0–3 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
- 10 August 2025Standard Liege 2–1 GenkJupiler Pro League
- 14 February 2025Standard Liege 1–2 GenkJupiler Pro League
- 4 December 2024Genk 2–1 Standard LiegeCup
Leading scorers: Genk and Standard Liege
Genk
GoalsAssists
- R. Durosinmi60
Standard Liege
GoalsAssists
- D. Eckert Ayensa41
- A. Abid32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Genk carry a model rating of 6.83 against 6.75 for Standard Liege. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for Genk and 1.08 for Standard Liege. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Genk rate 0.97 in attack and 1.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Standard Liege rate 0.84 and 1.04.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Genk a 0.2% chance of the title and Standard Liege 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Genk the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Genk against 1.08 for Standard Liege. Genk's attack/defence rating is 0.97/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.04 for Standard Liege.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Genk at home · Standard Liege away
League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
GenkStandard Liege
Genk are 6th after 8 Jupiler Pro League matches (between 4th and 14th so far); Standard Liege are 8th after 8 (between 3rd and 11th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: Genk 8, Standard Liege 8.
Genk score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Standard Liege have let in 3 there.
Standard Liege score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Genk have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Genk
- at KV Mechelen31 Oct · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 43%
- at Union St. Gilloise8 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 16%
- vs RAAL La Louvière21 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 61%
- at St. Truiden29 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 33%
- vs OH Leuven11 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 55%
Standard Liege
- vs Kortrijk31 Oct · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 64%
- vs SK Beveren6 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 54%
- at Lommel United22 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 26%
- vs Club Brugge KV29 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 19%
- at Zulte Waregem12 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.