VfL Bochum
vs
FSV Mainz 05
DFB Pokal prediction
Our model says: VfL Bochum 0–1 FSV Mainz 05
The model makes it 25% VfL Bochum, 28% draw, 47% FSV Mainz 05 — fair odds of 4.00, 3.57 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: VfL Bochum 0.97, FSV Mainz 05 1.51.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: FSV Mainz 05 are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- VfL Bochum are 12th in 2. Bundesliga on 7 points from 7 games; FSV Mainz 05 are 8th in Bundesliga on 7 points from 5 games.
- VfL Bochum are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Arminia Bielefeld.
- FSV Mainz 05 have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat at home to Bayer Leverkusen.
- Last 6 meetings: FSV Mainz 05 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 May 2025, ended VfL Bochum 1–4 FSV Mainz 05.
Chance to go through
DFB Pokal Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- VfL Bochum24%
- Level after ninety minutes27%
- FSV Mainz 0549%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More DFB Pokal predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FSV Mainz 05 at 47% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05
VfL Bochum
- L0-1Arminia Bielefeld11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Hannover 9620 September 2026
- D1-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Dynamo Dresden5 September 2026
- L0-1VfL Osnabrück28 August 2026
FSV Mainz 05
- L3-4Bayer Leverkusen10 October 2026
- W4-3away to Borussia Mönchengladbach19 September 2026
- L1-3Eintracht Frankfurt12 September 2026
- W5-0away to Hamburger SV6 September 2026
- D0-0SC Paderborn 0729 August 2026
What these results say
- VfL Bochum conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- VfL Bochum failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FSV Mainz 05 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FSV Mainz 05 had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
VfL Bochum and FSV Mainz 05 in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | VfL Bochum | 2. Bundesliga | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 7 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: 2. Bundesliga · Bundesliga
Head-to-head: VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05
- 10 May 2025VfL Bochum 1–4 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 11 January 2025FSV Mainz 05 2–0 VfL BochumBundesliga
- 16 March 2024FSV Mainz 05 2–0 VfL BochumBundesliga
- 27 October 2023VfL Bochum 2–2 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 28 January 2023FSV Mainz 05 5–2 VfL BochumBundesliga
- 6 August 2022VfL Bochum 1–2 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Leading scorers: VfL Bochum and FSV Mainz 05
VfL Bochum
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
FSV Mainz 05
GoalsAssists
- P. Tietz40
- S. Becker23
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
VfL Bochum carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.84 for FSV Mainz 05. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.97 goals for VfL Bochum and 1.51 for FSV Mainz 05. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
VfL Bochum rate 0.56 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FSV Mainz 05 rate 1.03 and 1.06.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FSV Mainz 05 the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.97 expected goals for VfL Bochum against 1.51 for FSV Mainz 05. VfL Bochum's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.03/1.06 for FSV Mainz 05.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
VfL Bochum at home · FSV Mainz 05 away
League matches only, this season — VfL Bochum in the 2. Bundesliga, FSV Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: VfL Bochum 7 in the 2. Bundesliga, FSV Mainz 05 5 in the Bundesliga.
VfL Bochum score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); FSV Mainz 05 have let in 0 there.
FSV Mainz 05 score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); VfL Bochum have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
VfL Bochum
- at Energie Cottbus30 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 31%
- vs Karlsruher SC8 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 48%
- at FC St. Pauli21 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 23%
- vs SV Darmstadt 9827 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 43%
FSV Mainz 05
- at SV Elversberg30 Oct · Bundesligawin 32%
- vs Bayern München7 Nov · Bundesligawin 17%
- at FC Augsburg22 Nov · Bundesligawin 30%
- vs Union Berlin28 Nov · Bundesligawin 55%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.