CF Montreal
vs
Nashville SC
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: CF Montreal 0–2 Nashville SC
The model makes it 18% CF Montreal, 25% draw, 57% Nashville SC — fair odds of 5.56, 4.00 and 1.75. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (11%).
Expected goals: CF Montreal 0.86, Nashville SC 1.92.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Nashville SC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- CF Montreal are bottom on 24 points from 28 games; Nashville SC are top on 63 points from 28 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- CF Montreal have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Toronto FC.
- Nashville SC are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 4-1 win away to Austin.
- Last 6 meetings: Nashville SC 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 23 July 2026, ended Nashville SC 1–0 CF Montreal.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: CF Montreal vs Nashville SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nashville SC at 57% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into CF Montreal vs Nashville SC
CF Montreal
- L1-2away to Toronto FC10 October 2026
- W3-1FC Cincinnati26 September 2026
- L0-2Columbus Crew19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids13 September 2026
- L1-2Charlotte9 September 2026
Nashville SC
- W4-1away to Austin11 October 2026
- W2-0Toronto FC27 September 2026
- W3-0Chicago Fire20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Inter Miami12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Toronto FC9 September 2026
What these results say
- CF Montreal conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- CF Montreal failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nashville SC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Nashville SC had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | CF Montreal | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 35 | 56 | -21 | 24 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 28 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 59 | 22 | +37 | 63 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: CF Montreal vs Nashville SC
- 23 July 2026Nashville SC 1–0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 4 October 2025CF Montreal 1–1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- 23 March 2025Nashville SC 3–0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 25 May 2024CF Montreal 0–0 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- 5 May 2024Nashville SC 4–1 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 21 June 2023CF Montreal 1–0 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: CF Montreal and Nashville SC
CF Montreal
GoalsAssists
- P. Owusu156
Nashville SC
GoalsAssists
- S. Surridge161
- H. Mukhtar146
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
CF Montreal carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.83 for Nashville SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.86 goals for CF Montreal and 1.92 for Nashville SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
CF Montreal rate 0.53 in attack and 1.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nashville SC rate 0.84 and 0.89.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nashville SC the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.86 expected goals for CF Montreal against 1.92 for Nashville SC. CF Montreal's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/0.89 for Nashville SC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
CF Montreal at home · Nashville SC away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: CF Montreal 27, Nashville SC 27.
Nashville SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); CF Montreal have let in 15 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
CF Montreal
- at Charlotte28 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 18%
- at New York City FC31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 20%
- vs Vancouver Whitecaps7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 23%
Nashville SC
- vs Philadelphia Union29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 52%
- vs New York Red Bulls1 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 64%
- at FC Cincinnati7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 52%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.