Esteghlal Khuzestan
vs
Shams Azar Qazvin
Persian Gulf Pro League prediction
Our model says: Esteghlal Khuzestan 1–0 Shams Azar Qazvin
The model makes it 37% Esteghlal Khuzestan, 28% draw, 35% Shams Azar Qazvin — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Esteghlal Khuzestan 1.36, Shams Azar Qazvin 1.30.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Esteghlal Khuzestan and Shams Azar Qazvin are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Esteghlal Khuzestan are 16th on 6 points from 8 games; Shams Azar Qazvin are 15th on 6 points from 8 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Esteghlal Khuzestan have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Gol Gohar.
- Shams Azar Qazvin are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Paykan.
- Last 6 meetings: Esteghlal Khuzestan 1 win to 0, 5 draws; the most recent, 18 January 2026, ended Shams Azar Qazvin 0–0 Esteghlal Khuzestan.
More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Shams Azar Qazvin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Esteghlal Khuzestan at 37% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Shams Azar Qazvin
Esteghlal Khuzestan
- L0-3away to Gol Gohar8 October 2026
- W1-0Tractor Sazi10 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sepahan FC6 September 2026
- D1-1Chadormalu SC1 September 2026
- D0-0away to Paykan28 August 2026
Shams Azar Qazvin
- D1-1away to Paykan10 October 2026
- L2-3Gol Gohar10 September 2026
- L0-1away to Chadormalu SC6 September 2026
- D0-0Tractor Sazi1 September 2026
- W2-0away to Nassaji Mazandaran28 August 2026
What these results say
- Esteghlal Khuzestan failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Esteghlal Khuzestan had two goals or fewer.
- Shams Azar Qazvin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Shams Azar Qazvin had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Esteghlal Khuzestan | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 6 |
| 15 | Shams Azar Qazvin | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Esteghlal Khuzestan
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 51% today
Shams Azar Qazvin
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 26% today
From our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Shams Azar Qazvin
- 18 January 2026Shams Azar Qazvin 0–0 Esteghlal KhuzestanPersian Gulf Pro League
- 19 August 2025Esteghlal Khuzestan 1–1 Shams Azar QazvinPersian Gulf Pro League
- 6 February 2025Esteghlal Khuzestan 1–0 Shams Azar QazvinPersian Gulf Pro League
- 13 September 2024Shams Azar Qazvin 2–2 Esteghlal KhuzestanPersian Gulf Pro League
- 15 February 2024Shams Azar Qazvin 0–0 Esteghlal KhuzestanPersian Gulf Pro League
- 9 August 2023Esteghlal Khuzestan 1–1 Shams Azar QazvinPersian Gulf Pro League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Esteghlal Khuzestan carry a model rating of 6.18 against 6.3 for Shams Azar Qazvin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.36 goals for Esteghlal Khuzestan and 1.30 for Shams Azar Qazvin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Esteghlal Khuzestan rate 0.49 in attack and 1.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Shams Azar Qazvin rate 0.57 and 1.70.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Shams Azar Qazvin, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Esteghlal Khuzestan the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Esteghlal Khuzestan against 1.30 for Shams Azar Qazvin. Esteghlal Khuzestan's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.7 for Shams Azar Qazvin.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Esteghlal Khuzestan at home · Shams Azar Qazvin away
League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Esteghlal Khuzestan 8, Shams Azar Qazvin 8.
Esteghlal Khuzestan score most often in the 61–75 minute window (2 goals); Shams Azar Qazvin have let in 0 there.
Shams Azar Qazvin score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Esteghlal Khuzestan have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Esteghlal Khuzestan
- at ZOB Ahan30 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 25%
- vs Esteghlal FC7 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 20%
Shams Azar Qazvin
- at Esteghlal FC30 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 14%
- vs Sanat Naft5 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 55%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.