Sparta Praha
vs
Slovácko
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Sparta Praha 2–0 Slovácko
The model makes it 66% Sparta Praha, 21% draw, 13% Slovácko — fair odds of 1.52, 4.76 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Sparta Praha 2.32, Slovácko 0.79.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Sparta Praha are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Sparta Praha are 3rd on 18 points from 10 games; Slovácko are 15th on 7 points from 10 games — Czech Liga.
- Sparta Praha are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Pardubice.
- Slovácko have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Slovan Liberec.
- Last 6 meetings: Sparta Praha 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 15 March 2026, ended Sparta Praha 5–2 Slovácko.
More Czech Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sparta Praha vs Slovácko
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sparta Praha at 66% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sparta Praha vs Slovácko
Sparta Praha
- W2-0Pardubice11 October 2026
- W3-0away to Sigma Olomouc20 September 2026
- W2-0FK Jablonec12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Hradec Králové6 September 2026
- L0-3Slavia Praha30 August 2026
Slovácko
- W2-0away to Slovan Liberec11 October 2026
- D2-2Baník Ostrava19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Bohemians 190512 September 2026
- D0-0Pardubice5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Plzen30 August 2026
What these results say
- Sparta Praha scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Slovácko failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Slovácko had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sparta Praha | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 18 |
| 15 | Slovácko | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sparta Praha
Chance to finish in the top four · 86% today
Slovácko
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 44% today
From our Czech Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Sparta Praha vs Slovácko
- 15 March 2026Sparta Praha 5–2 SlováckoCzech Liga
- 19 October 2025Slovácko 0–0 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 2 February 2025Slovácko 0–2 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 24 August 2024Sparta Praha 2–2 SlováckoCzech Liga
- 5 May 2024Slovácko 2–4 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 25 February 2024Slovácko 1–3 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Sparta Praha and Slovácko
Sparta Praha
GoalsAssists
- J. Mercado51
- J. Alcócer41
Slovácko
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sparta Praha carry a model rating of 6.96 against 6.51 for Slovácko. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.32 goals for Sparta Praha and 0.79 for Slovácko. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sparta Praha rate 1.16 in attack and 0.93 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Slovácko rate 0.67 and 1.32.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sparta Praha a 4.9% chance of the title and Slovácko 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sparta Praha the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Sparta Praha against 0.79 for Slovácko. Sparta Praha's attack/defence rating is 1.16/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.32 for Slovácko.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sparta Praha at home · Slovácko away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Sparta PrahaSlovácko
Sparta Praha are 3rd after 10 Czech Liga matches (between 2nd and 16th so far); Slovácko are 15th after 10 (between 11th and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: Sparta Praha 10, Slovácko 10.
Slovácko score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Sparta Praha have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sparta Praha
- at Bohemians 19051 Nov · Czech Ligawin 50%
- vs Bournemouth5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 51%
Slovácko
- vs Teplice31 Oct · Czech Ligawin 31%
- at Zlin7 Nov · Czech Ligawin 37%
- vs Hradec Králové22 Nov · Czech Ligawin 34%
- at Artis27 Nov · Czech Ligawin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.