Club America vs CF Pachuca Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Club America 1-2 CF Pachuca.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Club America, 23% draw, 23% CF Pachuca — fair odds of 1.85, 4.35 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Club America at 54% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Club America vs CF Pachuca
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1L. MalagonG
- 5K. AlvarezD
- 14S. BuenoD
- 15S. RamosD
- 24F. RossanoD
- 3I. ReyesM
- 28E. SanchezM
- 22O. PereaM
- 8C. AlvarezM
- 7B. RodriguezM
- 9H. MartinF
- 30R. CotaG
- 29R. JuarezD
- 34D. EspinozaM
- 6E. CerrilloM
- 13A. CervantesM
- 20A. H. Gutierrez TorresM
- 93Miguel BorjaF
- 12I. ViolanteF
- 189A. CardenasF
- 25C. MorenoG
- 13J. BerlangaD
- 4Eduardo BauermannD
- 2S. D. BarretoD
- 15F. VenegasD
- 7R. PizarroM
- 16C. RiveraM
- 26A. BautistaM
- 21N. VallejoF
- 23S. RondonF
- 11O. IdrissiF
- 31J. EulogioG
- 6M. IsaisD
- 221U. MartinezM
- 32P. BudibD
- 12S. SantosM
- 30S. RodriguezM
- 9A. AlcarazM
- 29KenedyM
- 207I. ZavalaF
Form going into Club America vs CF Pachuca
Club America
Liga MX
- W5-2away to Atlas22 October 2026
- W5-3away to Leon18 October 2026
- D1-1Monterrey11 October 2026
CF Pachuca
Liga MX
- L1-2Cruz Azul22 October 2026
- L1-2away to Monterrey19 October 2026
- D3-3Necaxa11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Santos Laguna27 September 2026
What these results say
- CF Pachuca did not win any of these 4 matches.
- CF Pachuca conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- CF Pachuca scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 34 | 19 | +15 | 28 |
| 13 | CF Pachuca | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Club America vs CF Pachuca
- 19 January 2026CF Pachuca 0–0 Club AmericaLiga MX
- 31 August 2025Club America 2–0 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 11 May 2025Club America 2–0 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 8 May 2025CF Pachuca 0–0 Club AmericaLiga MX
- 5 April 2025CF Pachuca 1–0 Club AmericaLiga MX
- 7 November 2024Club America 2–1 CF PachucaLiga MX
Leading scorers: Club America and CF Pachuca
Club America
GoalsAssists
- H. Martín83
- M. Borja60
- B. Rodríguez53
CF Pachuca
GoalsAssists
- S. Rondón131
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
CF Pachuca won 2–1 at Club America. The model had leaned towards a win for Club America at 54% and given a win for CF Pachuca 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: A. Bautista 12' for CF Pachuca, H. Martin 46' for Club America, O. Idrissi 74' for CF Pachuca. On expected goals it finished 2.74–0.54.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Club America a 82.2% chance to finish top of the Apertura: 90.7% after a win, 77.2% after a draw, 66.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 66.3%, 15.9 points lower than before the match.
For CF Pachuca the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 22.8% going in: 6.4% after a win, 19.0% after a draw, 29.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.4%, 16.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Club America v CF Pachuca has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 46% / 27% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 54% / 23% / 23%: the biggest move is Club America's chance of winning, up 8 points.
- Club America win54%▲ +8
- Draw23%▼ −4
- CF Pachuca win23%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.