Ruch Chorzów
vs
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Ruch Chorzów 1–0 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
The model makes it 42% Ruch Chorzów, 29% draw, 29% Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Ruch Chorzów 1.43, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1.11.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Ruch Chorzów are 7th on 15 points from 10 games; Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki are top on 21 points from 10 games — I Liga.
- Ruch Chorzów are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to ŁKS Łódź.
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-0 win away to Chrobry Głogów.
- Last 4 meetings: Ruch Chorzów 1 win to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 27 April 2026, ended Ruch Chorzów 2–2 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ruch Chorzów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ruch Chorzów at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ruch Chorzów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Ruch Chorzów
- W2-0away to ŁKS Łódź11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Polonia Bytom18 September 2026
- D3-3Podbeskidzie12 September 2026
- W3-1Unia Skierniewice7 September 2026
- L0-2away to Chrobry Głogów30 August 2026
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
- W4-0away to Chrobry Głogów10 October 2026
- W2-0ŁKS Łódź19 September 2026
- L2-3away to Unia Skierniewice13 September 2026
- W1-0Warta Poznań4 September 2026
- D2-2Nieciecza28 August 2026
What these results say
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Ruch Chorzów | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Ruch Chorzów
Chance to finish in the top four · 22% today
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Chance to finish in the top four · 61% today
From our I Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Ruch Chorzów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
- 27 April 2026Ruch Chorzów 2–2 Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiI Liga
- 17 October 2025Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2–2 Ruch ChorzówI Liga
- 12 March 2022Ruch Chorzów 4–1 Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiII Liga - East
- 28 August 2021Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1–1 Ruch ChorzówII Liga - East
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Ruch Chorzów carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.36 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Ruch Chorzów and 1.11 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ruch Chorzów rate 0.55 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki rate 0.60 and 1.60.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ruch Chorzów a 3% chance of the title and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 18.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ruch Chorzów the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Ruch Chorzów against 1.11 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki. Ruch Chorzów's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.6 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ruch Chorzów at home · Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Ruch Chorzów 10, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 10.
Ruch Chorzów score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have let in 2 there.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Ruch Chorzów have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Ruch Chorzów
- at Znicz Pruszków28 Oct · Cupwin 39%
- at Pogoń Siedlce3 Nov · I Ligawin 34%
- at Stal Mielec8 Nov · I Ligawin 38%
- vs Warta Poznań21 Nov · I Ligawin 44%
- at Arka Gdynia28 Nov · I Ligawin 24%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
- vs Stal Mielec30 Oct · I Ligawin 58%
- at Pogoń Siedlce8 Nov · I Ligawin 35%
- vs Arka Gdynia21 Nov · I Ligawin 39%
- at Podbeskidzie28 Nov · I Ligawin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.