Aucas
vs
Barcelona SC
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Aucas 1–0 Barcelona SC
The model makes it 36% Aucas, 30% draw, 34% Barcelona SC — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Aucas 1.21, Barcelona SC 1.17.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Aucas and Barcelona SC are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Aucas are 5th on 50 points from 32 games; Barcelona SC are bottom on 44 points from 31 games — Liga Pro, Championship Group.
- Aucas have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Independiente del Valle.
- Barcelona SC are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to LDU de Quito.
- Last 6 meetings: Barcelona SC 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 7 September 2026, ended Aucas 1–1 Barcelona SC.
More Ecuador LigaPro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Aucas vs Barcelona SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aucas at 36% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Aucas vs Barcelona SC
Aucas
- L1-2away to Independiente del Valle10 October 2026
- L1-2Macara19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Manta FC12 September 2026
- D1-1Barcelona SC7 September 2026
- D1-1away to Universidad Catolica Quito3 September 2026
Barcelona SC
- L1-2away to LDU de Quito11 October 2026
- D1-1Delfin SC13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Aucas7 September 2026
- W2-1Independiente del Valle3 September 2026
- L0-2away to Manta FC30 August 2026
What these results say
- Aucas did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Aucas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aucas conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Barcelona SC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Barcelona SC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Barcelona SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aucas | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 35 | 32 | +3 | 50 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 31 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 33 | 27 | +6 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Aucas vs Barcelona SC
- 7 September 2026Aucas 1–1 Barcelona SCLiga Pro
- 17 May 2026Barcelona SC 3–0 AucasLiga Pro
- 14 February 2026Barcelona SC 1–0 AucasFriendlies Clubs
- 28 September 2025Barcelona SC 1–1 AucasLiga Pro
- 1 June 2025Aucas 2–0 Barcelona SCLiga Pro
- 2 November 2024Aucas 1–1 Barcelona SCLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Aucas and Barcelona SC
Aucas
GoalsAssists
- A. Preciado63
Barcelona SC
GoalsAssists
- D. Benedetto82
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Aucas carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.64 for Barcelona SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.21 goals for Aucas and 1.17 for Barcelona SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aucas rate 0.65 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Barcelona SC rate 0.75 and 1.14.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aucas the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Aucas against 1.17 for Barcelona SC. Aucas's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.14 for Barcelona SC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Aucas at home · Barcelona SC away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Aucas 32, Barcelona SC 31.
Barcelona SC score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Aucas have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Aucas
- at Universidad Catolica Quito1 Nov · Liga Prowin 22%
- vs Independiente del Valle8 Nov · Liga Prowin 31%
- at LDU de Quito22 Nov · Liga Prowin 24%
- at Barcelona SC29 Nov · Liga Prowin 23%
Barcelona SC
- at Macara1 Nov · Liga Prowin 29%
- vs LDU de Quito8 Nov · Liga Prowin 43%
- at Universidad Catolica Quito22 Nov · Liga Prowin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.