Motherwell
vs
Heart of Midlothian
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Motherwell 1–2 Heart of Midlothian
The model makes it 32% Motherwell, 26% draw, 42% Heart of Midlothian — fair odds of 3.13, 3.85 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Motherwell 1.41, Heart of Midlothian 1.71.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Heart of Midlothian: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Motherwell are 9th on 8 points from 8 games; Heart of Midlothian are 3rd on 16 points from 8 games — Premiership.
- Motherwell are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Celtic.
- Heart of Midlothian have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-0 win at home to St Mirren.
- Last 6 meetings: Heart of Midlothian 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 9 May 2026, ended Motherwell 1–1 Heart of Midlothian.
More Scottish Premiership predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Motherwell vs Heart of Midlothian
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Heart of Midlothian at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Motherwell vs Heart of Midlothian
Motherwell
- L0-2Celtic11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Dundee19 September 2026
- L0-4Aberdeen15 September 2026
- L0-1away to Rangers5 September 2026
- W3-0Dundee United2 September 2026
Heart of Midlothian
- W5-0St Mirren10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Kilmarnock19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Falkirk15 September 2026
- W2-1Dundee6 September 2026
- W3-1away to Hibernian3 September 2026
What these results say
- Motherwell failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Motherwell conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Heart of Midlothian scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Heart of Midlothian conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Heart of Midlothian had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Motherwell | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 8 |
| 3 | Heart of Midlothian | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Motherwell
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 19% today
Heart of Midlothian
Chance to finish in the top four
From our Premiership season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Motherwell vs Heart of Midlothian
- 9 May 2026Motherwell 1–1 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 11 April 2026Heart of Midlothian 3–1 MotherwellPremiership
- 29 November 2025Motherwell 0–0 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 23 August 2025Heart of Midlothian 3–3 MotherwellPremiership
- 10 May 2025Heart of Midlothian 3–0 MotherwellPremiership
- 12 April 2025Motherwell 0–0 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
Leading scorers: Motherwell and Heart of Midlothian
Motherwell
GoalsAssists
- A. Lowry21
Heart of Midlothian
GoalsAssists
- J. McPake34
- Cláudio Braga32
- C. Miller31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Motherwell carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.66 for Heart of Midlothian. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for Motherwell and 1.71 for Heart of Midlothian. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Motherwell rate 0.66 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Heart of Midlothian rate 0.87 and 1.27.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Motherwell a 0% chance of the title and Heart of Midlothian 11.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Heart of Midlothian the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Motherwell against 1.71 for Heart of Midlothian. Motherwell's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.27 for Heart of Midlothian.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Motherwell at home · Heart of Midlothian away
League matches only, Premiership, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
MotherwellHeart of Midlothian
Motherwell are 9th after 8 Premiership matches (between 3rd and 9th so far); Heart of Midlothian are 2nd after 8 (between 2nd and 11th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: Motherwell 8, Heart of Midlothian 8.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Motherwell
- at St Johnstone28 Oct · Premiershipwin 32%
- vs St Mirren31 Oct · Premiershipwin 56%
- at Dundee United7 Nov · Premiershipwin 35%
- vs Rangers21 Nov · Premiershipwin 29%
Heart of Midlothian
- vs Rangers28 Oct · Premiershipwin 42%
- at Dundee United31 Oct · Premiershipwin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.