Start
vs
Sandefjord
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Start 0–1 Sandefjord
The model makes it 29% Start, 28% draw, 43% Sandefjord — fair odds of 3.45, 3.57 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Start 1.09, Sandefjord 1.45.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Sandefjord: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Start are bottom on 16 points from 22 games; Sandefjord are 12th on 24 points from 22 games — Eliteserien.
- Start have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat at home to Ham-Kam.
- Sandefjord have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Rosenborg.
- Last 6 meetings: Sandefjord 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 20 September 2026, ended Sandefjord 3–0 Start.
More Eliteserien predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Start vs Sandefjord
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sandefjord at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Start vs Sandefjord
Start
- L2-4Ham-Kam11 October 2026
- L0-3away to Sandefjord20 September 2026
- W2-0Brann13 September 2026
- L0-2away to Aalesund4 September 2026
- W4-1KFUM Oslo30 August 2026
Sandefjord
- D1-1away to Rosenborg10 October 2026
- W3-0Start20 September 2026
- L2-3away to Bodo/Glimt14 September 2026
- D1-1Viking4 September 2026
- D0-0Brann30 August 2026
What these results say
- Start conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sandefjord failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sandefjord scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Start | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 24 | 48 | -24 | 16 |
| 12 | Sandefjord | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 28 | -6 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Start
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 97% today
Sandefjord
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 5% today
From our Eliteserien season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Start vs Sandefjord
- 20 September 2026Sandefjord 3–0 StartEliteserien
- 8 March 2026Sandefjord 3–2 StartFriendlies Clubs
- 5 March 2023Start 1–0 SandefjordFriendlies Clubs
- 2 May 2021Start 1–1 SandefjordFriendlies Clubs
- 24 October 2020Start 0–1 SandefjordEliteserien
- 21 June 2020Sandefjord 2–2 StartEliteserien
The two sides
Start carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.62 for Sandefjord. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.09 goals for Start and 1.45 for Sandefjord. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Start rate 0.59 in attack and 1.64 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sandefjord rate 0.62 and 1.03.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sandefjord the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Start against 1.45 for Sandefjord. Start's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.03 for Sandefjord.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Start at home · Sandefjord away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: Start 22, Sandefjord 22.
Start score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Sandefjord have let in 5 there.
Sandefjord score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); Start have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Start
- vs Lillestrom1 Nov · Eliteserienwin 32%
- at Rosenborg7 Nov · Eliteserienwin 14%
- at Valerenga21 Nov · Eliteserienwin 24%
- vs Sarpsborg 08 FF29 Nov · Eliteserienwin 31%
Sandefjord
- at Aalesund31 Oct · Eliteserienwin 38%
- vs Molde8 Nov · Eliteserienwin 39%
- at Kristiansund BK22 Nov · Eliteserienwin 41%
- vs Tromso29 Nov · Eliteserienwin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.