Lechia Gdansk
vs
Jagiellonia
Cup prediction
Our model says: Lechia Gdansk 2–1 Jagiellonia
The model makes it 38% Lechia Gdansk, 26% draw, 36% Jagiellonia — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Lechia Gdansk 1.58, Jagiellonia 1.53.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Lechia Gdansk are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Stal Rzeszów.
- Jagiellonia are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Gornik Zabrze.
- Last 6 meetings: Jagiellonia 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 6 March 2026, ended Lechia Gdansk 3–0 Jagiellonia.
Chance to go through
Cup Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Lechia Gdansk39%
- Level after ninety minutes25%
- Jagiellonia36%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More Polish Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lechia Gdansk at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia
Lechia Gdansk
- W2-1away to Stal Rzeszów12 October 2026
- W7-1Stal Mielec19 September 2026
- W2-1Miedz Legnica13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Nieciecza4 September 2026
- W4-2away to Polonia Warszawa29 August 2026
Jagiellonia
- L1-3Gornik Zabrze10 October 2026
- L1-3Legia Warszawa20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Olympiakos Piraeus16 September 2026
- L0-2away to Wisla Krakow11 September 2026
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw6 September 2026
What these results say
- Lechia Gdansk scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lechia Gdansk conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Lechia Gdansk had three goals or more.
- Jagiellonia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Jagiellonia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jagiellonia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia
- 6 March 2026Lechia Gdansk 3–0 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 31 August 2025Jagiellonia 2–0 Lechia GdanskEkstraklasa
- 29 March 2025Lechia Gdansk 1–0 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 21 September 2024Jagiellonia 3–2 Lechia GdanskEkstraklasa
- 10 April 2023Jagiellonia 1–0 Lechia GdanskEkstraklasa
- 17 September 2022Lechia Gdansk 2–2 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lechia Gdansk carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.65 for Jagiellonia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.53 for Jagiellonia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lechia Gdansk rate 0.77 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jagiellonia rate 0.84 and 1.26.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lechia Gdansk the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk against 1.53 for Jagiellonia. Lechia Gdansk's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.26 for Jagiellonia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lechia Gdansk at home · Jagiellonia away
League matches only, this season — Lechia Gdansk in the I Liga, Jagiellonia in the Ekstraklasa. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Lechia Gdansk 10 in the I Liga, Jagiellonia 9 in the Ekstraklasa.
Jagiellonia score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Lechia Gdansk have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Lechia Gdansk
- vs Unia Skierniewice31 Oct · I Ligawin 66%
- at Polonia Bytom8 Nov · I Ligawin 44%
- vs Odra Opole21 Nov · I Ligawin 56%
- at ŁKS Łódź28 Nov · I Ligawin 38%
Jagiellonia
- at Wieczysta Kraków31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 33%
- at Levski Sofia5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.