National Bank of Egypt
vs
Al Masry
Premier League prediction
Our model says: National Bank of Egypt 1–0 Al Masry
The model makes it 39% National Bank of Egypt, 29% draw, 32% Al Masry — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: National Bank of Egypt 1.35, Al Masry 1.18.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- National Bank of Egypt are 7th on 9 points from 6 games; Al Masry are 12th on 7 points from 6 games — Premier League.
- National Bank of Egypt have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to El Geish.
- Al Masry are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Olympic El Qanah.
- Last 6 meetings: Al Masry 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 October 2025, ended National Bank of Egypt 0–1 Al Masry.
More Egyptian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: National Bank of Egypt vs Al Masry
Has the model earned this number?
It puts National Bank of Egypt at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into National Bank of Egypt vs Al Masry
National Bank of Egypt
- W3-0El Geish13 October 2026
- L0-2away to Ceramica Cleopatra14 September 2026
- W3-1Ghazl El Mehalla7 September 2026
- W1-0away to Asyut Petrol31 August 2026
- L0-3Zamalek SC26 August 2026
Al Masry
- D1-1away to Olympic El Qanah11 October 2026
- L0-2Al Ittihad Alexandria15 September 2026
- L1-2away to Petrojet7 September 2026
- L0-1Pyramids FC31 August 2026
- W3-2away to El Mokawloon27 August 2026
What these results say
- Al Masry conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al Masry failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | National Bank of Egypt | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Al Masry | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: National Bank of Egypt vs Al Masry
- 3 October 2025National Bank of Egypt 0–1 Al MasryPremier League
- 24 May 2025National Bank of Egypt 0–1 Al MasryPremier League
- 24 March 2025National Bank of Egypt 1–1 Al MasryLeague Cup
- 7 March 2025National Bank of Egypt 3–1 Al MasryCup
- 12 February 2025Al Masry 0–0 National Bank of EgyptPremier League
- 9 August 2024National Bank of Egypt 1–3 Al MasryCup
Leading scorers: National Bank of Egypt and Al Masry
National Bank of Egypt
GoalsAssists
- Osama Faisal20
Al Masry
GoalsAssists
- Salah Mohsen20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
National Bank of Egypt carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.33 for Al Masry. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for National Bank of Egypt and 1.18 for Al Masry. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
National Bank of Egypt rate 0.68 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Masry rate 0.63 and 1.77.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives National Bank of Egypt a 0.1% chance of the title and Al Masry 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives National Bank of Egypt the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for National Bank of Egypt against 1.18 for Al Masry. National Bank of Egypt's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.77 for Al Masry.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
National Bank of Egypt at home · Al Masry away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: National Bank of Egypt 6, Al Masry 6.
Al Masry score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); National Bank of Egypt have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
National Bank of Egypt
- at Smouha SC24 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- vs El Gouna FC8 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- at Pyramids FC14 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 20%
- vs Olympic El Qanah22 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 38%
Al Masry
- vs Asyut Petrol24 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 41%
- at Zamalek SC9 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 22%
- vs Ghazl El Mehalla16 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 43%
- vs El Gouna FC23 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.