Portland Timbers
vs
Charlotte
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Portland Timbers 1–2 Charlotte
The model makes it 36% Portland Timbers, 24% draw, 40% Charlotte — fair odds of 2.78, 4.17 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Portland Timbers 1.71, Charlotte 1.83.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Charlotte: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Portland Timbers are 10th in Major League Soccer, Western Conference on 33 points from 28 games; Charlotte are 5th in Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference on 46 points from 28 games.
- Portland Timbers have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw away to Sporting Kansas City.
- Charlotte have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to FC Dallas.
- Last 2 meetings: Charlotte 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 15 February 2025, ended Charlotte 2–0 Portland Timbers.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Portland Timbers vs Charlotte
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Charlotte at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Portland Timbers vs Charlotte
Portland Timbers
- D3-3away to Sporting Kansas City11 October 2026
- L1-3away to San Jose Earthquakes27 September 2026
- L0-1Atlanta United FC20 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Dallas13 September 2026
- D2-2St. Louis City10 September 2026
Charlotte
- W3-2FC Dallas10 October 2026
- L0-1Chicago Fire26 September 2026
- W2-1away to DC United19 September 2026
- D3-3away to FC Cincinnati12 September 2026
- W2-1away to CF Montreal9 September 2026
What these results say
- Portland Timbers did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Portland Timbers conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Portland Timbers scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Charlotte conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Charlotte scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Charlotte had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 51 | 54 | -3 | 33 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 50 | 40 | +10 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Portland Timbers
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 17% today
Charlotte
Chance to finish in the top four · 54% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Portland Timbers vs Charlotte
- 15 February 2025Charlotte 2–0 Portland TimbersFriendlies Clubs
- 4 May 2024Charlotte 2–0 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Portland Timbers carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.59 for Charlotte. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for Portland Timbers and 1.83 for Charlotte. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Portland Timbers rate 0.73 in attack and 1.65 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Charlotte rate 0.76 and 1.28.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Charlotte the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Portland Timbers against 1.83 for Charlotte. Portland Timbers's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.28 for Charlotte.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Portland Timbers at home · Charlotte away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Portland Timbers 28, Charlotte 27.
Portland Timbers score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Charlotte have let in 9 there.
Charlotte score most often in the 16–30 minute window (10 goals); Portland Timbers have let in 13 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Portland Timbers
- at St. Louis City29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 21%
- vs Houston Dynamo2 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 39%
- at Austin8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 34%
Charlotte
- vs CF Montreal28 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 59%
- vs Orlando City SC31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 53%
- at Inter Miami7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.