Farul Constanta
vs
Oțelul
Liga I prediction
Our model says: Farul Constanta 1–0 Oțelul
The model makes it 46% Farul Constanta, 27% draw, 27% Oțelul — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Farul Constanta 1.60, Oțelul 1.11.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Farul Constanta are 6th on 17 points from 11 games; Oțelul are 14th on 10 points from 11 games — Liga I.
- Farul Constanta have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Petrolul Ploiesti.
- Oțelul have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to FCSB.
- Last 6 meetings: Oțelul 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 3 July 2026, ended Farul Constanta 0–0 Oțelul.
More Romanian Liga I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Farul Constanta vs Oțelul
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Farul Constanta at 46% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Farul Constanta vs Oțelul
Farul Constanta
- W3-1Petrolul Ploiesti11 October 2026
- L0-4away to Dinamo Bucuresti20 September 2026
- W4-2Uta Arad11 September 2026
- D0-0away to CFR 1907 Cluj4 September 2026
- D0-0FC Botosani30 August 2026
Oțelul
- L0-1away to FCSB10 October 2026
- L2-3Corvinul Hunedoara21 September 2026
- L0-3away to Universitatea Cluj14 September 2026
- L0-1Rapid6 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC Voluntari28 August 2026
What these results say
- Oțelul did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Oțelul conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Farul Constanta | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 17 |
| 14 | Oțelul | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Farul Constanta
Chance to finish in the top four · 9% today
Oțelul
Chance to finish in the bottom three
From our Liga I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Farul Constanta vs Oțelul
- 3 July 2026Farul Constanta 0–0 OțelulFriendlies Clubs
- 9 May 2026Oțelul 3–2 Farul ConstantaLiga I
- 23 November 2025Oțelul 2–2 Farul ConstantaLiga I
- 20 July 2025Farul Constanta 3–2 OțelulLiga I
- 16 May 2025Oțelul 0–0 Farul ConstantaLiga I
- 22 November 2024Farul Constanta 0–1 OțelulLiga I
Leading scorers: Farul Constanta and Oțelul
Farul Constanta
GoalsAssists
- E. Rădăslăvescu53
- M. Ahlinvi41
- Iustin Doicaru31
Oțelul
GoalsAssists
- Patrick40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Farul Constanta carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.34 for Oțelul. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for Farul Constanta and 1.11 for Oțelul. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Farul Constanta rate 0.64 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Oțelul rate 0.60 and 1.67.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Farul Constanta a 0.1% chance of the title and Oțelul 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Farul Constanta the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Farul Constanta against 1.11 for Oțelul. Farul Constanta's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.67 for Oțelul.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Farul Constanta at home · Oțelul away
League matches only, Liga I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Farul ConstantaOțelul
Farul Constanta are 6th after 11 Liga I matches (between 3rd and 13th so far); Oțelul are 14th after 11 (between 1st and 14th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga I matches this season: Farul Constanta 11, Oțelul 11.
Farul Constanta score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Oțelul have let in 1 there.
Oțelul score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Farul Constanta have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Farul Constanta
- at FC Voluntari31 Oct · Liga Iwin 38%
- vs Rapid7 Nov · Liga Iwin 31%
- vs Universitatea Cluj21 Nov · Liga Iwin 36%
- at Corvinul Hunedoara28 Nov · Liga Iwin 26%
Oțelul
- vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe31 Oct · Liga Iwin 45%
- at FC Botosani7 Nov · Liga Iwin 26%
- at CFR 1907 Cluj21 Nov · Liga Iwin 22%
- vs Uta Arad28 Nov · Liga Iwin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.