Groningen
vs
Emmen
KNVB Beker prediction
Our model says: Groningen 2–0 Emmen
The model makes it 73% Groningen, 17% draw, 10% Emmen — fair odds of 1.37, 5.88 and 10.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Groningen 2.86, Emmen 0.79.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Groningen are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Groningen are 6th in Eredivisie on 14 points from 8 games; Emmen are 4th in Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season on 19 points from 10 games.
- Groningen are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 5-1 win away to Excelsior.
- Emmen are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Dordrecht.
- Last 6 meetings: Groningen 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 11 July 2026, ended Groningen 3–2 Emmen.
Chance to go through
KNVB Beker Round of 64 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Groningen80%
- Level after ninety minutes13%
- Emmen7%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More KNVB Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Groningen vs Emmen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Groningen at 73% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 310 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Groningen vs Emmen
Groningen
- W5-1away to Excelsior11 October 2026
- W3-0PEC Zwolle18 September 2026
- D1-1away to GO Ahead Eagles12 September 2026
- D2-2Twente6 September 2026
- L2-3Fortuna Sittard28 August 2026
Emmen
- W3-0away to Dordrecht9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Waalwijk3 October 2026
- W1-0FC OSS26 September 2026
- L1-3away to FC Eindhoven18 September 2026
- L1-2De Graafschap11 September 2026
What these results say
- Groningen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Groningen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Groningen had three goals or more.
- Emmen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Groningen and Emmen in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Groningen | Eredivisie | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 14 |
| 4 | Emmen | Eerste Divisie | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 19 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Eredivisie · Eerste Divisie
Head-to-head: Groningen vs Emmen
- 11 July 2026Groningen 3–2 EmmenFriendlies Clubs
- 20 July 2024Groningen 3–2 EmmenFriendlies Clubs
- 1 April 2024Emmen 0–3 GroningenEerste Divisie
- 23 October 2023Groningen 0–0 EmmenEerste Divisie
- 29 July 2023Groningen 1–1 EmmenFriendlies Clubs
- 18 February 2023Groningen 1–1 EmmenEredivisie
Leading scorers: Groningen and Emmen
Groningen
GoalsAssists
- T. van Bergen52
- B. Willumsson50
Emmen
GoalsAssists
- F. Quispel71
- J. Cooper63
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Groningen carry a model rating of 6.79 against 6.3 for Emmen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.86 goals for Groningen and 0.79 for Emmen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Groningen rate 0.94 in attack and 1.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Emmen rate 0.62 and 1.87.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Groningen the highest probability at 73%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.86 expected goals for Groningen against 0.79 for Emmen. Groningen's attack/defence rating is 0.94/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.87 for Emmen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Groningen at home · Emmen away
League matches only, this season — Groningen in the Eredivisie, Emmen in the Eerste Divisie. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Groningen 8 in the Eredivisie, Emmen 10 in the Eerste Divisie.
Emmen score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Groningen have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Groningen
- vs Sparta Rotterdam1 Nov · Eredivisiewin 60%
- at AZ Alkmaar8 Nov · Eredivisiewin 25%
- vs Heerenveen21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 47%
- vs Willem II27 Nov · Eredivisiewin 71%
Emmen
- vs Den Bosch30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 49%
- vs MVV8 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 56%
- at NAC Breda14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 19%
- at Jong Utrecht20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.