Round of 32 · 27 October 2026, 19:30 UTC

Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze Cup prediction

Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Gliwice

Our model says: Piast Gliwice 0–1 Gornik Zabrze

The model makes it 34% Piast Gliwice, 28% draw, 38% Gornik Zabrze — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Piast Gliwice 1.27, Gornik Zabrze 1.36.

Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.

Model confidence: Low.

Edge to Gornik Zabrze: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Key facts

  • Piast Gliwice are 7th on 16 points from 10 games; Gornik Zabrze are top on 25 points from 10 games — Ekstraklasa.
  • Piast Gliwice have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Widzew Łódź.
  • Gornik Zabrze are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-1 win away to Jagiellonia.
  • Last 6 meetings: Gornik Zabrze 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 31 January 2026, ended Gornik Zabrze 2–1 Piast Gliwice.

Chance to go through

Cup Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.

  • Piast Gliwice34%
  • Level after ninety minutes28%
  • Gornik Zabrze38%

The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.

More Polish Cup predictions

All Polish Cup predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze

54%
Both teams to score
49%
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Piast Gliwice win Draw Gornik Zabrze win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 0–19%
  3. 1–09%
  4. 1–28%
  5. 2–18%
  6. 0–08%
  7. 0–27%

Scores read Piast Gliwice first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 38%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Gornik Zabrze at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze

Piast Gliwice

  • W2-1Widzew Łódź11 October 2026
  • L1-2Pogon Szczecin20 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Radomiak Radom14 September 2026
  • W3-0GKS Katowice4 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Motor Lublin29 August 2026

Gornik Zabrze

  • W3-1away to Jagiellonia10 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Motor Lublin19 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Korona Kielce15 September 2026
  • W2-1Lech Poznan12 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Cracovia Krakow6 September 2026

What these results say

  • Piast Gliwice scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Piast Gliwice won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Gornik Zabrze went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Gornik Zabrze won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Gornik Zabrze scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Piast Gliwice105141816+216
1Gornik Zabrze10811199+1025

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze

  • 31 January 2026Gornik Zabrze 2–1 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
  • 26 July 2025Piast Gliwice 0–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
  • 17 May 2025Piast Gliwice 2–0 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
  • 24 November 2024Gornik Zabrze 1–0 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
  • 10 February 2024Piast Gliwice 1–3 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
  • 5 August 2023Gornik Zabrze 0–0 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze

Piast Gliwice

GoalsAssists

  • Leandro Sanca41

Gornik Zabrze

GoalsAssists

  • K. Urbański41
  • Peter40

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

Piast Gliwice carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.84 for Gornik Zabrze. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.27 goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.36 for Gornik Zabrze. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Piast Gliwice rate 0.85 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gornik Zabrze rate 0.89 and 0.92.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Gornik Zabrze the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Piast Gliwice against 1.36 for Gornik Zabrze. Piast Gliwice's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/0.92 for Gornik Zabrze.

Season stats

Piast GliwiceGornik Zabrze
10Matches10
5W 1D 4LRecord8W 1D 1L
18 1.8 per gameGoals scored19 1.9 per game
16 1.6 per gameGoals conceded9 0.9 per game
3 of 10Clean sheets3 of 10
2 of 10Failed to score1 of 10
2 of 2Penalties scored3 of 3
16 1.6 per gameYellow cards26 2.6 per game
0Red cards1
4-4-2 7×Usual shape4-3-3 6×

Piast Gliwice at home · Gornik Zabrze away

6Played6
3W 1D 2LRecord5W 1D 0L
14–11Goals for – against11–3
1 of 6Clean sheets3 of 6

League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Piast Gliwice 10, Gornik Zabrze 10.

Piast Gliwice scored 114029
Gornik Zabrze conceded 201133

Piast Gliwice score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Gornik Zabrze have let in 3 there.

Gornik Zabrze scored 123327
Piast Gliwice conceded 211283

Gornik Zabrze score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Piast Gliwice have let in 3 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Piast Gliwice

  • at Wisla Plock31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 38%
  • at Slask Wroclaw7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 39%
  • vs Korona Kielce21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 45%
  • at Raków Częstochowa28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 34%

Gornik Zabrze

  • vs Legia Warszawa31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 41%
  • vs Wieczysta Kraków7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 58%
  • at Zaglebie Lubin21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 39%
  • vs Wisla Plock28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 60%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.