Sabadell
vs
Tenerife
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Sabadell 1–0 Tenerife
The model makes it 49% Sabadell, 29% draw, 22% Tenerife — fair odds of 2.04, 3.45 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Sabadell 1.50, Tenerife 0.82.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Sabadell: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Sabadell are 5th on 16 points from 9 games; Tenerife are 12th on 12 points from 9 games — Segunda División.
- Sabadell are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to AD Ceuta FC.
- Tenerife are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Girona.
- Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 16 May 2021, ended Sabadell 0–2 Tenerife.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sabadell vs Tenerife
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sabadell at 49% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sabadell vs Tenerife
Sabadell
- W2-1away to AD Ceuta FC10 October 2026
- D0-0FC Andorra4 October 2026
- D1-1away to Celta de Vigo II26 September 2026
- W3-1Oviedo20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Mallorca13 September 2026
Tenerife
- D1-1Girona12 October 2026
- L2-3away to Cordoba5 October 2026
- D1-1Cadiz26 September 2026
- L0-5away to Castellón19 September 2026
- W2-0Leganes13 September 2026
What these results say
- Sabadell conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tenerife failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tenerife scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tenerife conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Sabadell | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 16 |
| 12 | Tenerife | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sabadell
Chance to finish in the top four · 25% today
Tenerife
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 10% today
From our Segunda División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Sabadell vs Tenerife
- 16 May 2021Sabadell 0–2 TenerifeSegunda División
- 3 December 2020Tenerife 1–2 SabadellSegunda División
Leading scorers: Sabadell and Tenerife
Sabadell
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Tenerife
GoalsAssists
- Enric Gallego60
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sabadell carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.45 for Tenerife. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for Sabadell and 0.82 for Tenerife. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sabadell rate 0.65 in attack and 1.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Tenerife rate 0.67 and 1.50.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sabadell a 3% chance of the title and Tenerife 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sabadell the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Sabadell against 0.82 for Tenerife. Sabadell's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.5 for Tenerife.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sabadell at home · Tenerife away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
SabadellTenerife
Sabadell are 4th after 9 Segunda División matches (between 3rd and 13th so far); Tenerife are 12th after 9 (between 2nd and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Sabadell 9, Tenerife 9.
Tenerife score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Sabadell have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sabadell
- at Albacete1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 43%
- vs Real Sociedad II8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 51%
- at Eldense15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 34%
- vs Granada CF22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 48%
Tenerife
- vs FC Andorra1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 39%
- at Granada CF8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 28%
- vs AD Ceuta FC15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 51%
- vs Mallorca22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.