Hapoel Petah Tikva
vs
Beitar Jerusalem
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Hapoel Petah Tikva 0–1 Beitar Jerusalem
The model makes it 23% Hapoel Petah Tikva, 26% draw, 51% Beitar Jerusalem — fair odds of 4.35, 3.85 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Hapoel Petah Tikva 1.00, Beitar Jerusalem 1.74.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Beitar Jerusalem are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Hapoel Petah Tikva are 11th on 4 points from 6 games; Beitar Jerusalem are 5th on 12 points from 6 games — Ligat Ha'al.
- Hapoel Petah Tikva are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Maccabi Netanya.
- Beitar Jerusalem are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 4-0 win away to Hapoel Ramat Gan.
- Last 6 meetings: Beitar Jerusalem 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 19 May 2026, ended Hapoel Petah Tikva 0–0 Beitar Jerusalem.
More Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Beitar Jerusalem
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Beitar Jerusalem at 51% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Beitar Jerusalem
Hapoel Petah Tikva
- D1-1Maccabi Netanya10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Hapoel Tel Aviv18 September 2026
- L0-2Hapoel Beer Sheva13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Maccabi Haifa5 September 2026
- W1-0Hapoel Jerusalem29 August 2026
Beitar Jerusalem
- W4-0away to Hapoel Ramat Gan11 October 2026
- W2-1Hapoel Haifa19 September 2026
- W3-1Maccabi Petah Tikva15 September 2026
- W1-0away to Bnei Sakhnin7 September 2026
- L0-3away to Hapoel Tel Aviv3 September 2026
What these results say
- Hapoel Petah Tikva failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hapoel Petah Tikva conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Beitar Jerusalem won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Beitar Jerusalem scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Beitar Jerusalem had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 4 |
| 5 | Beitar Jerusalem | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 28% today
Beitar Jerusalem
Chance to finish in the top four · 58% today
From our Ligat Ha'al season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Beitar Jerusalem
- 19 May 2026Hapoel Petah Tikva 0–0 Beitar JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 28 April 2026Beitar Jerusalem 3–1 Hapoel Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
- 17 January 2026Hapoel Petah Tikva 1–3 Beitar JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 4 October 2025Beitar Jerusalem 5–2 Hapoel Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
- 21 April 2024Hapoel Petah Tikva 0–2 Beitar JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 30 January 2024Beitar Jerusalem 2–2 Hapoel Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
Leading scorers: Hapoel Petah Tikva and Beitar Jerusalem
Hapoel Petah Tikva
No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Beitar Jerusalem
GoalsAssists
- O. Atzili32
- E. Ansah30
- B. Enow20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Hapoel Petah Tikva carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.59 for Beitar Jerusalem. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.00 goals for Hapoel Petah Tikva and 1.74 for Beitar Jerusalem. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hapoel Petah Tikva rate 0.46 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Beitar Jerusalem rate 0.81 and 1.36.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hapoel Petah Tikva a 0% chance of the title and Beitar Jerusalem 5.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Beitar Jerusalem the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Hapoel Petah Tikva against 1.74 for Beitar Jerusalem. Hapoel Petah Tikva's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.36 for Beitar Jerusalem.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hapoel Petah Tikva at home · Beitar Jerusalem away
League matches only, Ligat Ha'al, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligat Ha'al matches this season: Hapoel Petah Tikva 6, Beitar Jerusalem 6.
Hapoel Petah Tikva score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); Beitar Jerusalem have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Hapoel Petah Tikva
- at Hapoel Haifa31 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 28%
- vs Hapoel Ramat Gan7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 45%
- at Maccabi Tel Aviv28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 14%
- at Maccabi Petah Tikva1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 37%
Beitar Jerusalem
- vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona31 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 61%
- at Ironi Tiberias7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 50%
- vs Hapoel Jerusalem28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 60%
- at Maccabi Haifa1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.