Sarpsborg 08 FF
vs
Aalesund
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–1 Aalesund
The model makes it 51% Sarpsborg 08 FF, 24% draw, 25% Aalesund — fair odds of 1.96, 4.17 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.07, Aalesund 1.32.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Sarpsborg 08 FF are 9th on 28 points from 22 games; Aalesund are 14th on 21 points from 22 games — Eliteserien.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-2 win away to Aalesund.
- Aalesund have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat at home to Sarpsborg 08 FF.
- Last 6 meetings: Sarpsborg 08 FF 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 11 October 2026, ended Aalesund 2–4 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
More Eliteserien predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sarpsborg 08 FF at 51% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund
Sarpsborg 08 FF
- W4-2away to Aalesund11 October 2026
- L1-3KFUM Oslo18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Fredrikstad13 September 2026
- D2-2Valerenga6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Tromso30 August 2026
Aalesund
- L2-4Sarpsborg 08 FF11 October 2026
- W2-1away to Molde19 September 2026
- L1-2away to KFUM Oslo13 September 2026
- W2-0Start4 September 2026
- L1-2away to Viking30 August 2026
What these results say
- Sarpsborg 08 FF failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aalesund scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Aalesund conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Aalesund had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 28 |
| 14 | Aalesund | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 35 | 50 | -15 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Aalesund
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 66% today
From our Eliteserien season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund
- 11 October 2026Aalesund 2–4 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 22 October 2023Aalesund 3–2 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 29 May 2023Sarpsborg 08 FF 3–1 AalesundEliteserien
- 11 September 2022Aalesund 1–3 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 22 May 2022Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–2 AalesundEliteserien
- 13 September 2020Aalesund 0–1 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
Leading scorers: Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund
Sarpsborg 08 FF
GoalsAssists
- D. Karlsbakk70
Aalesund
GoalsAssists
- M. Christensen82
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sarpsborg 08 FF carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.46 for Aalesund. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.07 goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.32 for Aalesund. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sarpsborg 08 FF rate 0.68 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aalesund rate 0.77 and 1.70.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF against 1.32 for Aalesund. Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.7 for Aalesund.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sarpsborg 08 FF at home · Aalesund away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: Sarpsborg 08 FF 22, Aalesund 22.
Sarpsborg 08 FF score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Aalesund have let in 10 there.
Aalesund score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Sarpsborg 08 FF have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sarpsborg 08 FF
- vs Kristiansund BK1 Nov · Eliteserienwin 54%
- at Ham-Kam8 Nov · Eliteserienwin 37%
- vs Lillestrom22 Nov · Eliteserienwin 43%
- at Start29 Nov · Eliteserienwin 42%
Aalesund
- vs Sandefjord31 Oct · Eliteserienwin 35%
- at Lillestrom8 Nov · Eliteserienwin 27%
- vs Rosenborg22 Nov · Eliteserienwin 29%
- at Fredrikstad29 Nov · Eliteserienwin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.