Hull City
vs
Brentford
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Hull City 1–0 Brentford
The model makes it 36% Hull City, 28% draw, 36% Brentford — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Hull City 1.31, Brentford 1.32.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Hull City and Brentford are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Hull City are 8th on 9 points from 6 games; Brentford are 4th on 10 points from 6 games — Premier League.
- Hull City are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Everton.
- Brentford are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Aston Villa.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 1 February 2020, ended Hull City 1–5 Brentford.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hull City vs Brentford
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hull City at 36% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Hull City vs Brentford
Hull City
- D2-2Everton11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Newcastle19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Chelsea12 September 2026
- D0-0Aston Villa5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Coventry29 August 2026
Brentford
- D2-2away to Aston Villa10 October 2026
- W3-0Chelsea18 September 2026
- D2-2away to Bournemouth12 September 2026
- D1-1Sunderland5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Leeds30 August 2026
What these results say
- Hull City failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hull City scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Brentford went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Brentford scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Brentford failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Hull City
Chance to finish in the top four · 8% today
Brentford
Chance to finish in the top four · 21% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Brentford vs Hull City
Brentford and Hull City have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 2 drawn.
The record
Brentford won the last one 5–1 on 1 Feb 2020.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 9 |
| Hull City | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 14 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 23 goals, an average of 3.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 1 Feb 2020
ChampionshipHull City 1–5 Brentford - 17 Aug 2019
ChampionshipBrentford 1–1 Hull City - 23 Feb 2019
ChampionshipBrentford 5–1 Hull City - 15 Dec 2018
ChampionshipHull City 2–0 Brentford - 6 May 2018
ChampionshipBrentford 1–1 Hull City - 9 Dec 2017
ChampionshipHull City 3–2 Brentford
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: Hull City and Brentford
Hull City
GoalsAssists
- M. Belloumi32
Brentford
GoalsAssists
- K. Schade30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hull City carry a model rating of 6.92 against 6.99 for Brentford. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for Hull City and 1.32 for Brentford. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hull City rate 0.95 in attack and 0.83 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Brentford rate 1.14 and 0.86.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Brentford, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hull City a 0.1% chance of the title and Brentford 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hull City the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Hull City against 1.32 for Brentford. Hull City's attack/defence rating is 0.95/0.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.14/0.86 for Brentford.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hull City at home · Brentford away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Hull CityBrentford
Hull City are 9th after 6 Premier League matches (between 2nd and 9th so far); Brentford are 4th after 6 (between 2nd and 5th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Hull City 6, Brentford 6.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Hull City
- vs Ipswich31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 48%
- at Arsenal7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 16%
- vs Brighton22 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- at Crystal Palace29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 39%
Brentford
- at Sunderland28 Oct · League Cupwin 39%
- vs Nottingham Forest31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 47%
- at Brighton8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- vs Everton23 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 45%
- at Manchester United28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.