Albacete
vs
Eldense
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Albacete 0–1 Eldense
The model makes it 32% Albacete, 29% draw, 39% Eldense — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Albacete 1.19, Eldense 1.35.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to Eldense: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Albacete are bottom on 1 point from 9 games; Eldense are 14th on 11 points from 9 games — Segunda División.
- Albacete have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-5 defeat away to Valladolid.
- Eldense have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Cordoba.
- Last 6 meetings: Eldense 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 August 2026, ended Albacete 1–0 Eldense.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Albacete vs Eldense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Eldense at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Albacete vs Eldense
Albacete
- L0-5away to Valladolid12 October 2026
- L1-3Eibar3 October 2026
- L0-2away to Girona25 September 2026
- L1-2Cordoba18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Granada CF12 September 2026
Eldense
- W2-1Cordoba10 October 2026
- W4-1Oviedo2 October 2026
- L0-1away to Burgos27 September 2026
- L1-2Eibar19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sporting Gijon13 September 2026
What these results say
- Albacete did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Albacete conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Eldense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Eldense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Albacete | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 20 | -15 | 1 |
| 14 | Eldense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Albacete
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 74% today
Eldense
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 5% today
From our Segunda División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Albacete vs Eldense
- 7 August 2026Albacete 1–0 EldenseFriendlies Clubs
- 23 February 2025Albacete 0–1 EldenseSegunda División
- 16 November 2024Eldense 2–0 AlbaceteSegunda División
- 21 April 2024Eldense 0–1 AlbaceteSegunda División
- 19 December 2023Albacete 1–1 EldenseSegunda División
- 29 July 2023Albacete 2–3 EldenseFriendlies Clubs
The two sides
Albacete carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.51 for Eldense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.19 goals for Albacete and 1.35 for Eldense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Albacete rate 0.57 in attack and 1.66 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Eldense rate 0.68 and 1.35.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Albacete a 0% chance of the title and Eldense 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Eldense the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Albacete against 1.35 for Eldense. Albacete's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.35 for Eldense.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Albacete at home · Eldense away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
AlbaceteEldense
Albacete are 22nd after 9 Segunda División matches (between 18th and 22nd so far); Eldense are 12th after 9 (between 12th and 21st). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Albacete 9, Eldense 9.
Albacete score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Eldense have let in 1 there.
Eldense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Albacete have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Albacete
- vs Sabadell1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 27%
- at Leganes8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 30%
- vs Celta de Vigo II15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 34%
- at Burgos22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 18%
Eldense
- vs Granada CF1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 44%
- at Las Palmas8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 30%
- vs Sabadell15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 35%
- at Castellón22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.