Aarhus
vs
Viborg
Superliga prediction
Our model says: Aarhus 2–1 Viborg
The model makes it 39% Aarhus, 27% draw, 34% Viborg — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Aarhus 1.55, Viborg 1.43.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Aarhus are 10th on 8 points from 10 games; Viborg are 3rd on 20 points from 10 games — Superliga.
- Aarhus have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Sonderjyske.
- Viborg are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Randers FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Aarhus 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 August 2026, ended Viborg 2–1 Aarhus.
More Danish Superliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Aarhus vs Viborg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aarhus at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Aarhus vs Viborg
Aarhus
- W3-0Sonderjyske12 October 2026
- D2-2away to AC Horsens20 September 2026
- L0-2away to FC Nordsjaelland13 September 2026
- D2-2Silkeborg5 September 2026
- L0-2FC Midtjylland2 September 2026
Viborg
- W2-0away to Randers FC11 October 2026
- W4-1FC Nordsjaelland20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Silkeborg13 September 2026
- L0-2Lyngby4 September 2026
- W3-2away to AC Horsens28 August 2026
What these results say
- Aarhus failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aarhus conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Viborg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Viborg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Aarhus | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 8 |
| 3 | Viborg | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Aarhus
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 20% today
Viborg
Chance to finish in the top four · 75% today
From our Superliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Aarhus vs Viborg
- 14 August 2026Viborg 2–1 AarhusSuperliga
- 27 June 2026Aarhus 1–1 ViborgFriendlies Clubs
- 17 May 2026Aarhus 6–2 ViborgSuperliga
- 6 April 2026Viborg 1–2 AarhusSuperliga
- 22 February 2026Aarhus 5–2 ViborgSuperliga
- 14 September 2025Viborg 1–2 AarhusSuperliga
Leading scorers: Aarhus and Viborg
Aarhus
GoalsAssists
- J. Serra40
- C. McCowatt32
Viborg
GoalsAssists
- Dorian Hanza41
- C. Nouck32
- M. Søndergaard32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Aarhus carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.68 for Viborg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.55 goals for Aarhus and 1.43 for Viborg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aarhus rate 0.80 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Viborg rate 0.78 and 1.11.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Viborg, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Aarhus a 0% chance of the title and Viborg 4.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aarhus the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Aarhus against 1.43 for Viborg. Aarhus's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.11 for Viborg.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Aarhus at home · Viborg away
League matches only, Superliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
AarhusViborg
Aarhus are 10th after 10 Superliga matches (between 2nd and 11th so far); Viborg are 2nd after 10 (between 1st and 5th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Superliga matches this season: Aarhus 10, Viborg 10.
Aarhus score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Viborg have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Aarhus
- at Brondby1 Nov · Superligawin 36%
- vs SC Braga5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 29%
Viborg
- vs AC Horsens1 Nov · Superligawin 49%
- at Odense7 Nov · Superligawin 43%
- vs Randers FC22 Nov · Superligawin 55%
- at Lyngby29 Nov · Superligawin 51%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.