Znicz Pruszków
vs
Ruch Chorzów
Cup prediction
Our model says: Znicz Pruszków 0–1 Ruch Chorzów
The model makes it 33% Znicz Pruszków, 28% draw, 39% Ruch Chorzów — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Znicz Pruszków 1.29, Ruch Chorzów 1.44.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to Ruch Chorzów: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Ruch Chorzów are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to ŁKS Łódź.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 24 May 2026, ended Znicz Pruszków 3–2 Ruch Chorzów.
Chance to go through
Cup Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Znicz Pruszków33%
- Level after ninety minutes27%
- Ruch Chorzów40%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More Polish Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Znicz Pruszków vs Ruch Chorzów
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ruch Chorzów at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Znicz Pruszków vs Ruch Chorzów
Znicz Pruszków
No earlier matches on record this season.
Ruch Chorzów
- W2-0away to ŁKS Łódź11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Polonia Bytom18 September 2026
- D3-3Podbeskidzie12 September 2026
- W3-1Unia Skierniewice7 September 2026
- L0-2away to Chrobry Głogów30 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Znicz Pruszków vs Ruch Chorzów
- 24 May 2026Znicz Pruszków 3–2 Ruch ChorzówI Liga
- 23 November 2025Ruch Chorzów 1–2 Znicz PruszkówI Liga
- 8 December 2024Znicz Pruszków 2–3 Ruch ChorzówI Liga
- 28 July 2024Ruch Chorzów 0–0 Znicz PruszkówI Liga
- 26 July 2022Ruch Chorzów 2–0 Znicz PruszkówCup
- 1 May 2022Ruch Chorzów 0–0 Znicz PruszkówII Liga - East
The two sides
Znicz Pruszków carry a model rating of 6.14 against 6.34 for Ruch Chorzów. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.29 goals for Znicz Pruszków and 1.44 for Ruch Chorzów. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Znicz Pruszków rate 0.52 in attack and 2.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ruch Chorzów rate 0.55 and 1.53.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ruch Chorzów the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Znicz Pruszków against 1.44 for Ruch Chorzów. Znicz Pruszków's attack/defence rating is 0.52/2.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.53 for Ruch Chorzów.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Znicz Pruszków
No further matches on our board yet.
Ruch Chorzów
- at Pogoń Siedlce3 Nov · I Ligawin 34%
- at Stal Mielec8 Nov · I Ligawin 38%
- vs Warta Poznań21 Nov · I Ligawin 44%
- at Arka Gdynia28 Nov · I Ligawin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.