San Diego
vs
Seattle Sounders
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: San Diego 2–1 Seattle Sounders
The model makes it 40% San Diego, 26% draw, 34% Seattle Sounders — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: San Diego 1.59, Seattle Sounders 1.42.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- San Diego are 12th on 32 points from 28 games; Seattle Sounders are 7th on 41 points from 28 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- San Diego have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to New York Red Bulls.
- Seattle Sounders are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-0 win away to New England Revolution.
- Last 3 meetings: level at 1 win each, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Seattle Sounders 1–1 San Diego.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: San Diego vs Seattle Sounders
Has the model earned this number?
It puts San Diego at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into San Diego vs Seattle Sounders
San Diego
- L1-4away to New York Red Bulls10 October 2026
- D3-3away to Austin27 September 2026
- D2-2away to Inter Miami20 September 2026
- L0-5Philadelphia Union14 September 2026
- L2-3San Jose Earthquakes10 September 2026
Seattle Sounders
- W3-0away to New England Revolution10 October 2026
- W2-1Sporting Kansas City2 October 2026
- W3-1Minnesota United FC27 September 2026
- W2-0Real Salt Lake24 September 2026
- D3-3away to Colorado Rapids20 September 2026
What these results say
- San Diego did not win any of these 5 matches.
- San Diego conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for San Diego had three goals or more.
- Seattle Sounders went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | San Diego | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 48 | 51 | -3 | 32 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 38 | 35 | +3 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
San Diego
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 27% today
Seattle Sounders
Chance to finish in the top four · 10% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: San Diego vs Seattle Sounders
- 10 May 2026Seattle Sounders 1–1 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- 29 May 2025Seattle Sounders 1–0 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- 6 April 2025San Diego 3–0 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: San Diego and Seattle Sounders
San Diego
GoalsAssists
- M. Ingvartsen123
Seattle Sounders
GoalsAssists
- D. Joveljić121
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
San Diego carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.51 for Seattle Sounders. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for San Diego and 1.42 for Seattle Sounders. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
San Diego rate 0.70 in attack and 1.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Seattle Sounders rate 0.62 and 1.24.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Seattle Sounders, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives San Diego the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for San Diego against 1.42 for Seattle Sounders. San Diego's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.24 for Seattle Sounders.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
San Diego at home · Seattle Sounders away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: San Diego 28, Seattle Sounders 28.
San Diego score most often in the 46–60 minute window (11 goals); Seattle Sounders have let in 5 there.
Seattle Sounders score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); San Diego have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
San Diego
- at Vancouver Whitecaps29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 19%
- at St. Louis City31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 21%
- vs Sporting Kansas City8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 56%
Seattle Sounders
- vs Houston Dynamo29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 40%
- at Vancouver Whitecaps1 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 22%
- vs Los Angeles FC8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.