Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen DFB Pokal prediction & result
Final score: Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Werder Bremen.
Before kick-off the model made it 64% Borussia Dortmund, 23% draw, 13% Werder Bremen — fair odds of 1.56, 4.35 and 7.69.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Borussia Dortmund at 64%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1G. KobelG
- 22Kouakou Joane GadouD
- 3W. AntonD
- 4N. SchlotterbeckD
- 26J. RyersonM
- 25J. VeermanM
- 8F. NmechaM
- 14M. BeierM
- 7J. BellinghamM
- 17C. ChukwuemekaM
- 9S. GuirassyF
- 30P. DrewesG
- 40S. InacioF
- 39F. ManéD
- 41M. AlbertF
- 18E. NwaneriM
- 49L. ReggianiD
- 20M. SabitzerM
- 21Fábio SilvaF
- 24D. SvenssonD
- 1K. HeinG
- 13ArthurD
- 5A. PieperD
- 32M. FriedlD
- 33Mick SchmetgensD
- 23Dariusz StalmachM
- 44Y. RegeerM
- 18E. DinkçiM
- 20Chuky San JoséM
- 17M. GrüllM
- 26C. IttenF
- 38P. ErevbenagieF
- 10N. FüllkrugF
- 14S. LynenM
- 15L. ReisM
- 30A. SchlagerG
- 34D. SoyluM
- 8M. WeiserD
- 3O. WójcikD
- 36Mats Ole HeitmannD
Form going into Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
Borussia Dortmund
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Eintracht Frankfurt24 October 2026
- W2-1away to Sabah FA20 October 2026
- D0-0away to Union Berlin17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Bodo/Glimt14 October 2026
- D2-2Werder Bremen9 October 2026
Werder Bremen
Bundesliga
- W3-2away to FSV Mainz 0524 October 2026
- D2-2SC Paderborn 0717 October 2026
- D2-2away to Borussia Dortmund9 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen have met 7 times in the records we hold, Borussia Dortmund has won 4 of them to Werder Bremen's 0, with 3 drawn.
The record
Borussia Dortmund won the last one 3–2 on 27 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 7 |
| Werder Bremen | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 21 goals, an average of 3.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 27 Oct 2026
DFB PokalBorussia Dortmund 3–2 Werder Bremen - 9 Oct 2026
BundesligaBorussia Dortmund 2–2 Werder Bremen - 16 May 2026
BundesligaWerder Bremen 0–2 Borussia Dortmund - 13 Jan 2026
BundesligaBorussia Dortmund 3–0 Werder Bremen - 25 Jan 2025
BundesligaBorussia Dortmund 2–2 Werder Bremen - 31 Aug 2024
BundesligaWerder Bremen 0–0 Borussia Dortmund - 9 Mar 2024
BundesligaWerder Bremen 1–2 Borussia Dortmund
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Borussia Dortmund's attack rates 32% above Werder Bremen's, and Borussia Dortmund concede 41% fewer than Werder Bremen. That gives Borussia Dortmund the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 1.21 | 0.58 |
| Werder Bremen | 0.92 | 0.98 |
Leading scorers: Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen
Borussia Dortmund
No leading scorers listed yet.
Werder Bremen
GoalsAssists
- N. Füllkrug90
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Borussia Dortmund beat Werder Bremen 3–2. The model had made a win for Borussia Dortmund its most likely outcome, at 64%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Serhou Guirassy 6' for Borussia Dortmund, Carney Chukwuemeka 17' for Borussia Dortmund, Niclas Füllkrug (penalty) 65' for Werder Bremen, Niclas Füllkrug 68' for Werder Bremen, Marcel Sabitzer 90+3' for Borussia Dortmund. On expected goals it finished 1.44–1.59.
How the call on Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen has moved
First published on 13 Oct at 66% / 22% / 12% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 64% / 23% / 13%: the biggest move is Borussia Dortmund's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Borussia Dortmund win64%▼ −2
- Draw23%▲ +1
- Werder Bremen win13%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Borussia Dortmund's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Werder Bremen's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.