Cienciano
vs
Atletico Grau
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Cienciano 1–0 Atletico Grau
The model makes it 46% Cienciano, 28% draw, 26% Atletico Grau — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Cienciano 1.56, Atletico Grau 1.02.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Cienciano are 6th on 44 points from 28 games; Atletico Grau are 13th on 33 points from 28 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- Cienciano have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to UCV Moquegua.
- Atletico Grau have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Club Deportivo Los Chankas.
- Last 6 meetings: Cienciano 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 9 May 2026, ended Atletico Grau 1–2 Cienciano.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cienciano vs Atletico Grau
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cienciano at 46% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cienciano vs Atletico Grau
Cienciano
- W2-0away to UCV Moquegua8 October 2026
- D1-1Club Deportivo Los Chankas30 September 2026
- L1-2away to ADT23 September 2026
- W5-2away to FC Cajamarca4 September 2026
- L1-2Cusco31 August 2026
Atletico Grau
- D0-0Club Deportivo Los Chankas8 October 2026
- L1-3away to Sporting Cristal19 September 2026
- W3-1Alianza Atletico13 September 2026
- L2-4away to Deportivo Garcilaso6 September 2026
- W1-0FBC Melgar1 September 2026
What these results say
- Cienciano scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cienciano conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Cienciano.
- Atletico Grau scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cienciano | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 48 | 40 | +8 | 44 |
| 13 | Atletico Grau | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cienciano vs Atletico Grau
- 9 May 2026Atletico Grau 1–2 CiencianoPrimera División
- 24 August 2025Cienciano 1–0 Atletico GrauPrimera División
- 5 April 2025Atletico Grau 1–1 CiencianoPrimera División
- 17 August 2024Cienciano 1–0 Atletico GrauPrimera División
- 9 March 2024Atletico Grau 1–1 CiencianoPrimera División
- 30 September 2023Cienciano 2–0 Atletico GrauPrimera División
Leading scorers: Cienciano and Atletico Grau
Cienciano
GoalsAssists
- C. Garcés153
- A. Hohberg125
- N. Bandiera81
Atletico Grau
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 26 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cienciano carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.33 for Atletico Grau. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for Cienciano and 1.02 for Atletico Grau. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cienciano rate 0.67 in attack and 1.73 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atletico Grau rate 0.49 and 1.43.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cienciano the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Cienciano against 1.02 for Atletico Grau. Cienciano's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.43 for Atletico Grau.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cienciano at home · Atletico Grau away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Cienciano 28, Atletico Grau 28.
Cienciano score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Atletico Grau have let in 6 there.
Atletico Grau score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Cienciano have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Cienciano
- at Alianza Lima31 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 19%
- vs Sport Huancayo7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 48%
- at Sporting Cristal14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 23%
Atletico Grau
- vs Universitario31 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 35%
- vs Cusco7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 38%
- at UCV Moquegua14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.