Djurgardens IF
vs
Orgryte IS
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Djurgardens IF 2–0 Orgryte IS
The model makes it 75% Djurgardens IF, 16% draw, 9% Orgryte IS — fair odds of 1.33, 6.25 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Djurgardens IF 2.94, Orgryte IS 0.75.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Djurgardens IF are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Djurgardens IF are 2nd on 44 points from 23 games; Orgryte IS are 15th on 15 points from 23 games — Allsvenskan.
- Djurgardens IF have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Hammarby FF.
- Orgryte IS have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to BK Hacken.
More Allsvenskan predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Djurgardens IF vs Orgryte IS
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Djurgardens IF at 75% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Djurgardens IF vs Orgryte IS
Djurgardens IF
- W1-0away to Hammarby FF11 October 2026
- L1-2IF Elfsborg20 September 2026
- W2-0Gais14 September 2026
- W1-0away to Kalmar FF7 September 2026
- W2-0away to Mjallby AIF3 September 2026
Orgryte IS
- L0-3away to BK Hacken11 October 2026
- L1-2Sirius19 September 2026
- L1-4away to Malmo FF13 September 2026
- D1-1Hammarby FF6 September 2026
- L0-1away to IFK Goteborg30 August 2026
What these results say
- Djurgardens IF scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Djurgardens IF won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Djurgardens IF kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Orgryte IS did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Orgryte IS conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Djurgardens IF | 23 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 48 | 21 | +27 | 44 |
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 23 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 25 | 52 | -27 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Djurgardens IF
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 9% today
Orgryte IS
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 94% today
From our Allsvenskan season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Djurgardens IF vs Orgryte IS
- 20 July 2026Orgryte IS 0–0 Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: Djurgardens IF and Orgryte IS
Djurgardens IF
GoalsAssists
- K. Lien156
- Bo Åsulv Hegland914
- C. Rosenquist71
Orgryte IS
GoalsAssists
- N. Christoffersson81
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Djurgardens IF carry a model rating of 6.76 against 6.16 for Orgryte IS. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.94 goals for Djurgardens IF and 0.75 for Orgryte IS. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Djurgardens IF rate 0.87 in attack and 1.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Orgryte IS rate 0.52 and 2.07.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Djurgardens IF a 9.2% chance of the title and Orgryte IS 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Djurgardens IF the highest probability at 75%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.94 expected goals for Djurgardens IF against 0.75 for Orgryte IS. Djurgardens IF's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/2.07 for Orgryte IS.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Djurgardens IF at home · Orgryte IS away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: Djurgardens IF 23, Orgryte IS 23.
Djurgardens IF score most often in the 0–15 minute window (11 goals); Orgryte IS have let in 6 there.
Orgryte IS score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Djurgardens IF have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Djurgardens IF
- at IFK Goteborg28 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 55%
- vs Degerfors IF1 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 67%
- at Halmstad8 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 68%
- at Sirius22 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 41%
Orgryte IS
- vs Mjallby AIF29 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 33%
- at IF Elfsborg1 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 15%
- vs Vasteras SK FK7 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 27%
- vs Kalmar FF23 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.