Kalmar FF
vs
Gais
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Kalmar FF 0–1 Gais
The model makes it 23% Kalmar FF, 31% draw, 46% Gais — fair odds of 4.35, 3.23 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (16%).
Expected goals: Kalmar FF 0.75, Gais 1.31.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: Gais are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Kalmar FF are 14th on 19 points from 23 games; Gais are 10th on 30 points from 23 games — Allsvenskan.
- Kalmar FF have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Malmo FF.
- Gais have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Sirius.
- Last 3 meetings: Gais 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 30 May 2026, ended Gais 3–0 Kalmar FF.
More Allsvenskan predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kalmar FF vs Gais
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gais at 46% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Kalmar FF vs Gais
Kalmar FF
- L0-1away to Malmo FF12 October 2026
- L0-5BK Hacken20 September 2026
- L0-1away to IF Elfsborg13 September 2026
- L0-1Djurgardens IF7 September 2026
- L0-1away to Halmstad29 August 2026
Gais
- L0-1Sirius10 October 2026
- W3-0away to Mjallby AIF20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Djurgardens IF14 September 2026
- D0-0BK Hacken5 September 2026
- W4-0IF Brommapojkarna31 August 2026
What these results say
- Kalmar FF did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Kalmar FF failed to score in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kalmar FF conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Kalmar FF | 23 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 21 | 37 | -16 | 19 |
| 10 | Gais | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 28 | 21 | +7 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Kalmar FF vs Gais
- 30 May 2026Gais 3–0 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
- 31 August 2024Gais 1–1 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
- 25 April 2024Kalmar FF 2–3 GaisAllsvenskan
The two sides
Kalmar FF carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.58 for Gais. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.75 goals for Kalmar FF and 1.31 for Gais. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kalmar FF rate 0.44 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gais rate 0.57 and 1.05.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gais the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Kalmar FF against 1.31 for Gais. Kalmar FF's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.05 for Gais.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Kalmar FF at home · Gais away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: Kalmar FF 23, Gais 23.
Kalmar FF score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Gais have let in 3 there.
Gais score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Kalmar FF have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Kalmar FF
- at Mjallby AIF2 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 25%
- vs Sirius8 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 21%
- at Orgryte IS23 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 33%
Gais
- vs AIK Stockholm2 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 50%
- at Degerfors IF7 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 44%
- vs Vasteras SK FK21 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.