Atlanta United FC
vs
Chicago Fire
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Atlanta United FC 1–2 Chicago Fire
The model makes it 30% Atlanta United FC, 27% draw, 43% Chicago Fire — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Atlanta United FC 1.31, Chicago Fire 1.66.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Chicago Fire: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Atlanta United FC are 14th on 27 points from 28 games; Chicago Fire are 3rd on 48 points from 28 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- Atlanta United FC have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to FC Cincinnati.
- Chicago Fire are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to New York City FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Chicago Fire 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 12 April 2026, ended Chicago Fire 1–0 Atlanta United FC.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chicago Fire at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire
Atlanta United FC
- L1-3FC Cincinnati10 October 2026
- D2-2New York City FC26 September 2026
- W1-0away to Portland Timbers20 September 2026
- D0-0away to DC United12 September 2026
- L2-3Orlando City SC9 September 2026
Chicago Fire
- W2-1New York City FC10 October 2026
- W3-1Vancouver Whitecaps7 October 2026
- W1-0away to Charlotte26 September 2026
- L0-3away to Nashville SC20 September 2026
- L1-2New England Revolution13 September 2026
What these results say
- Atlanta United FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atlanta United FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Chicago Fire had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 33 | 48 | -15 | 27 |
| 3 | Chicago Fire | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 51 | 40 | +11 | 48 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Atlanta United FC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 81% today
Chicago Fire
Chance to finish in the top four · 81% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire
- 12 April 2026Chicago Fire 1–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 16 July 2025Atlanta United FC 2–2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 10 May 2025Chicago Fire 2–1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 28 April 2024Chicago Fire 0–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 31 March 2024Atlanta United FC 3–0 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 21 May 2023Chicago Fire 3–3 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Atlanta United FC and Chicago Fire
Atlanta United FC
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.
Chicago Fire
GoalsAssists
- H. Cuypers130
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Atlanta United FC carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.59 for Chicago Fire. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for Atlanta United FC and 1.66 for Chicago Fire. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atlanta United FC rate 0.54 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chicago Fire rate 0.79 and 1.32.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Chicago Fire the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Atlanta United FC against 1.66 for Chicago Fire. Atlanta United FC's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.32 for Chicago Fire.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Atlanta United FC at home · Chicago Fire away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Atlanta United FC 27, Chicago Fire 27.
Atlanta United FC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); Chicago Fire have let in 2 there.
Chicago Fire score most often in the 61–75 minute window (11 goals); Atlanta United FC have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Atlanta United FC
- at New York City FC28 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 23%
- vs Toronto FC1 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 38%
- at New York Red Bulls7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 28%
Chicago Fire
- vs Orlando City SC29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 54%
- at Colorado Rapids1 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 40%
- vs Columbus Crew7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 51%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.