Bayern München
vs
1. FC Magdeburg
DFB Pokal prediction
Our model says: Bayern München 3–0 1. FC Magdeburg
The model makes it 87% Bayern München, 9% draw, 4% 1. FC Magdeburg — fair odds of 1.15, 11.11 and 25.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Bayern München 3.95, 1. FC Magdeburg 0.66.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 84%, under 2.5: 16%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Bayern München are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Bayern München are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to FC Augsburg.
- 1. FC Magdeburg are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Hannover 96.
Chance to go through
DFB Pokal Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Bayern München91%
- Level after ninety minutes6%
- 1. FC Magdeburg3%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More DFB Pokal predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bayern München vs 1. FC Magdeburg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bayern München at 87% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bayern München vs 1. FC Magdeburg
Bayern München
- D3-3away to Viking13 October 2026
- D2-2away to FC Augsburg10 October 2026
- W7-0Union Berlin18 September 2026
- W2-1away to SV Elversberg13 September 2026
- W5-0Bodo/Glimt10 September 2026
1. FC Magdeburg
- W3-0Hannover 9610 October 2026
- D1-1away to SpVgg Greuther Fürth18 September 2026
- W3-01. FC Kaiserslautern12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Hertha BSC6 September 2026
- W2-0Holstein Kiel30 August 2026
What these results say
- Bayern München went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Bayern München scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Bayern München had three goals or more.
- 1. FC Magdeburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Leading scorers: Bayern München and 1. FC Magdeburg
Bayern München
No leading scorers listed yet.
1. FC Magdeburg
GoalsAssists
- E. Iyoha50
- A. Nollenberger31
- M. Żukowski30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Bayern München carry a model rating of 7.33 against 6.59 for 1. FC Magdeburg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.95 goals for Bayern München and 0.66 for 1. FC Magdeburg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bayern München rate 1.76 in attack and 0.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; 1. FC Magdeburg rate 0.81 and 1.38.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bayern München the highest probability at 87%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.95 expected goals for Bayern München against 0.66 for 1. FC Magdeburg. Bayern München's attack/defence rating is 1.76/0.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.38 for 1. FC Magdeburg.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bayern München at home · 1. FC Magdeburg away
League matches only, this season — Bayern München in the Bundesliga, 1. FC Magdeburg in the 2. Bundesliga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Bayern München 5 in the Bundesliga, 1. FC Magdeburg 7 in the 2. Bundesliga.
Bayern München score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); 1. FC Magdeburg have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Bayern München
- vs Borussia Dortmund31 Oct · Bundesligawin 49%
- at Atletico Madrid3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 40%
- at FSV Mainz 057 Nov · Bundesligawin 64%
1. FC Magdeburg
- at SV Darmstadt 9831 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 41%
- vs FC St. Pauli8 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 39%
- at Arminia Bielefeld20 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 37%
- vs Energie Cottbus29 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 51%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.