AEK Larnaca
vs
Omonia Nicosia
1. Division prediction
Our model says: AEK Larnaca 0–1 Omonia Nicosia
The model makes it 33% AEK Larnaca, 29% draw, 38% Omonia Nicosia — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: AEK Larnaca 1.16, Omonia Nicosia 1.28.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to Omonia Nicosia: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- AEK Larnaca are top on 12 points from 5 games; Omonia Nicosia are 3rd on 11 points from 5 games — 1. Division.
- AEK Larnaca have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Omonia Aradippou.
- Omonia Nicosia are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-0 win away to Karmiotissa.
- Last 6 meetings: Omonia Nicosia 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Omonia Nicosia 1–1 AEK Larnaca.
More Cypriot First Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Omonia Nicosia at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia
AEK Larnaca
- W1-0Omonia Aradippou12 October 2026
- W2-1away to Omonia 29is Maiou18 September 2026
- L0-1Pafos13 September 2026
- W4-1away to Nea Salamis6 September 2026
- W3-1Apoel Nicosia29 August 2026
Omonia Nicosia
- W3-0away to Karmiotissa9 October 2026
- W4-1Krasava Ypsonas20 September 2026
- D0-0Apollon Limassol12 September 2026
- W4-1away to Aris7 September 2026
- D0-0Omonia Aradippou31 August 2026
What these results say
- AEK Larnaca won 4 of these 5 matches.
- AEK Larnaca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- AEK Larnaca conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Omonia Nicosia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Larnaca | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 12 |
| 3 | Omonia Nicosia | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia
- 10 May 2026Omonia Nicosia 1–1 AEK Larnaca1. Division
- 14 April 2026AEK Larnaca 0–2 Omonia Nicosia1. Division
- 14 January 2026Omonia Nicosia 2–1 AEK LarnacaCup
- 15 December 2025AEK Larnaca 1–1 Omonia Nicosia1. Division
- 17 September 2025Omonia Nicosia 1–0 AEK Larnaca1. Division
- 7 May 2025AEK Larnaca 2–1 Omonia NicosiaCup
The two sides
AEK Larnaca carry a model rating of 6.88 against 7.07 for Omonia Nicosia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.16 goals for AEK Larnaca and 1.28 for Omonia Nicosia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AEK Larnaca rate 0.93 in attack and 0.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Omonia Nicosia rate 1.19 and 0.77.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour AEK Larnaca, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Omonia Nicosia the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.16 expected goals for AEK Larnaca against 1.28 for Omonia Nicosia. AEK Larnaca's attack/defence rating is 0.93/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.19/0.77 for Omonia Nicosia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
AEK Larnaca at home · Omonia Nicosia away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: AEK Larnaca 5, Omonia Nicosia 5.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
AEK Larnaca
- at Krasava Ypsonas31 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 58%
- vs Karmiotissa7 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 70%
- at Olympiakos22 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 45%
- vs Apollon Limassol27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 53%
Omonia Nicosia
- vs AEL31 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 76%
- at NEC Nijmegen5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.