Emelec
vs
Guayaquil City FC
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Emelec 2–1 Guayaquil City FC
The model makes it 40% Emelec, 27% draw, 33% Guayaquil City FC — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Emelec 1.50, Guayaquil City FC 1.34.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Last 6 meetings: Guayaquil City FC 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 10 October 2026, ended Guayaquil City FC 3–2 Emelec.
More Ecuador LigaPro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Emelec vs Guayaquil City FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Emelec at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Emelec vs Guayaquil City FC
Emelec
- L2-3away to Guayaquil City FC10 October 2026
Guayaquil City FC
- W3-2Emelec10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Emelec vs Guayaquil City FC
- 10 October 2026Guayaquil City FC 3–2 EmelecLiga Pro
- 10 August 2026Guayaquil City FC 0–0 EmelecLiga Pro
- 18 April 2026Emelec 1–3 Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro
- 22 October 2025Guayaquil City FC 0–0 EmelecCopa Ecuador
- 4 November 2023Guayaquil City FC 0–0 EmelecLiga Pro
- 30 May 2023Emelec 0–0 Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Emelec and Guayaquil City FC
Emelec
GoalsAssists
- R. Carrillo123
- L. Klimowicz62
Guayaquil City FC
GoalsAssists
- E. Mero134
- D. Dorregaray82
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Emelec carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.45 for Guayaquil City FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for Emelec and 1.34 for Guayaquil City FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Emelec rate 0.57 in attack and 1.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Guayaquil City FC rate 0.72 and 1.62.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Emelec the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Emelec against 1.34 for Guayaquil City FC. Emelec's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.62 for Guayaquil City FC.
Season stats
Emelec at home · Guayaquil City FC away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Emelec 31, Guayaquil City FC 31.
Emelec score most often in the 16–30 minute window (9 goals); Guayaquil City FC have let in 4 there.
Guayaquil City FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Emelec have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Emelec
- vs Leones del Norte1 Nov · Liga Prowin 40%
- at Libertad8 Nov · Liga Prowin 20%
Guayaquil City FC
- vs Libertad1 Nov · Liga Prowin 39%
- at Leones del Norte8 Nov · Liga Prowin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.