Odra Opole
vs
Pogoń Siedlce
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Odra Opole 1–0 Pogoń Siedlce
The model makes it 39% Odra Opole, 36% draw, 25% Pogoń Siedlce — fair odds of 2.56, 2.78 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Odra Opole 0.94, Pogoń Siedlce 0.64.
Both teams to score: 29%. Over 2.5 goals: 21%, under 2.5: 79%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Odra Opole are 11th on 12 points from 10 games; Pogoń Siedlce are 10th on 12 points from 9 games — I Liga.
- Odra Opole have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Miedz Legnica.
- Pogoń Siedlce have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Podbeskidzie.
- Last 4 meetings: Odra Opole 4 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 6 February 2026, ended Odra Opole 1–0 Pogoń Siedlce.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Odra Opole vs Pogoń Siedlce
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Odra Opole at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Odra Opole vs Pogoń Siedlce
Odra Opole
- W1-0Miedz Legnica11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Nieciecza19 September 2026
- L0-1Stal Rzeszów13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Stal Mielec5 September 2026
- D0-0ŁKS Łódź28 August 2026
Pogoń Siedlce
- L0-1away to Podbeskidzie9 October 2026
- W2-1Arka Gdynia20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Chrobry Głogów12 September 2026
- W2-0Stal Mielec29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Lechia Gdansk21 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Odra Opole had two goals or fewer.
- Odra Opole failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Pogoń Siedlce had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Odra Opole | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Pogoń Siedlce | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Odra Opole
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 21% today
Pogoń Siedlce
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 21% today
From our I Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Odra Opole vs Pogoń Siedlce
- 6 February 2026Odra Opole 1–0 Pogoń SiedlceI Liga
- 3 August 2025Pogoń Siedlce 0–1 Odra OpoleI Liga
- 8 December 2024Pogoń Siedlce 0–1 Odra OpoleI Liga
- 28 July 2024Odra Opole 4–1 Pogoń SiedlceI Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Odra Opole carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.22 for Pogoń Siedlce. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.94 goals for Odra Opole and 0.64 for Pogoń Siedlce. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Odra Opole rate 0.39 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pogoń Siedlce rate 0.39 and 1.48.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Pogoń Siedlce, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Odra Opole a 0.3% chance of the title and Pogoń Siedlce 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Odra Opole the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Odra Opole against 0.64 for Pogoń Siedlce. Odra Opole's attack/defence rating is 0.39/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.39/1.48 for Pogoń Siedlce.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Odra Opole at home · Pogoń Siedlce away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Odra Opole 10, Pogoń Siedlce 9.
Odra Opole score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Pogoń Siedlce have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Odra Opole
- at Polonia Bytom2 Nov · I Ligawin 27%
- vs Unia Skierniewice6 Nov · I Ligawin 44%
- at Lechia Gdansk21 Nov · I Ligawin 17%
- vs Polonia Warszawa28 Nov · I Ligawin 37%
Pogoń Siedlce
- at Tychy 7128 Oct · Cupwin 34%
- vs Ruch Chorzów3 Nov · I Ligawin 33%
- vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki8 Nov · I Ligawin 33%
- at Unia Skierniewice21 Nov · I Ligawin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.