Once Caldas
vs
Deportivo Pereira
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Once Caldas 1–0 Deportivo Pereira
The model makes it 58% Once Caldas, 26% draw, 16% Deportivo Pereira — fair odds of 1.72, 3.85 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Once Caldas 1.73, Deportivo Pereira 0.65.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Once Caldas are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Once Caldas are 10th on 16 points from 13 games; Deportivo Pereira are bottom on 9 points from 12 games — Primera A.
- Once Caldas have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Llaneros.
- Deportivo Pereira have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Deportivo Cali.
- Last 6 meetings: Once Caldas 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 10 April 2026, ended Deportivo Pereira 0–0 Once Caldas.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pereira
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Once Caldas at 58% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pereira
Once Caldas
- W1-0Llaneros10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Internacional de Bogota4 October 2026
- L1-3Bucaramanga26 September 2026
- L0-1away to Deportivo Pasto20 September 2026
- W1-0Deportes Tolima16 September 2026
Deportivo Pereira
- D0-0Deportivo Cali10 October 2026
- L0-4away to Cucuta4 October 2026
- L1-2Santa Fe29 September 2026
- D0-0Internacional de Bogota26 September 2026
- D2-2away to Águilas Doradas18 September 2026
What these results say
- Once Caldas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Once Caldas had two goals or fewer.
- Deportivo Pereira did not win any of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Once Caldas | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Deportivo Pereira
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 68% today
From our Primera A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pereira
- 10 April 2026Deportivo Pereira 0–0 Once CaldasPrimera A
- 6 September 2025Once Caldas 1–0 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 3 August 2025Deportivo Pereira 2–1 Once CaldasPrimera A
- 22 March 2025Deportivo Pereira 1–1 Once CaldasPrimera A
- 20 February 2025Once Caldas 3–1 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 3 September 2024Deportivo Pereira 0–1 Once CaldasPrimera A
Leading scorers: Once Caldas and Deportivo Pereira
Once Caldas
GoalsAssists
- D. Moreno151
- J. Zapata112
Deportivo Pereira
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Once Caldas carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.18 for Deportivo Pereira. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.73 goals for Once Caldas and 0.65 for Deportivo Pereira. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Once Caldas rate 0.68 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportivo Pereira rate 0.45 and 1.75.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Once Caldas the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Once Caldas against 0.65 for Deportivo Pereira. Once Caldas's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.75 for Deportivo Pereira.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Once Caldas at home · Deportivo Pereira away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Once Caldas 34, Deportivo Pereira 30.
Once Caldas score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Deportivo Pereira have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Once Caldas
- vs Alianza Valledupar28 Oct · Primera Awin 56%
- vs Águilas Doradas7 Nov · Primera Awin 47%
- at Atletico Nacional12 Nov · Primera Awin 17%
Deportivo Pereira
- vs Jaguares30 Oct · Primera Awin 38%
- vs Deportes Tolima3 Nov · Primera Awin 26%
- at Atletico Nacional7 Nov · Primera Awin 8%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.